Illinois

28-9

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

86.3%Illinois

13.7%Northwestern

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIllinois -11.5

PROJECTED TOTAL150.2

MODEL MONEYLINEIllinois -630

Northwestern

15-19

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIllinois 81

Projected Total150.2

Projected ScoreNorthwestern 69

Team Comparison

IllinoisMetricNorthwestern

76.5MMH Power Index55.4

125.0Offensive Efficiency111.6

103.3Defensive Efficiency109.8

21.7Net Efficiency1.8

6.7Strength of Schedule5.6

12.7Last 10 Net Efficiency-2.7

66.5Tempo65.6

54.8%Effective FG%51.9%

13.1%Turnover Rate13.0%

39.3%Offensive Rebound %28.2%

33.8%Free Throw Rate34.8%

14.5Average Margin1.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY86.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (76.5–55.4), offensive efficiency (125.0–111.6), defensive efficiency (103.3–109.8), net efficiency (21.7–1.8).

Northwestern COUNTERS WITHball security (13.0–13.1), free throw rate (34.8–33.8).

Final

Illinois

66—70

Northwestern

Northwestern by 4 • 75.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

IllinoisTEAM STATNorthwestern

25-67FG28-72

37.0%FG%39.0%

9-343PT4-21

26.0%3PT%19.0%

7-11FT10-17

64.0%FT%59.0%

44Rebounds44

7Offensive Rebounds10

19Assists13

11Turnovers4

2Steals5

4Blocks6

16Fouls14

Player Box Score

Illinois

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Kasparas Jakucionis	Guard	39	7-16	6-10	0-0	10	7	1	1	20
Tomislav Ivisic	C	38	5-11	2-5	3-4	12	5	0	1	15
Will Riley	Forward	30	4-12	0-6	4-6	3	2	0	0	12
Kylan Boswell	G	41	3-11	0-3	0-0	5	2	1	0	6
Morez Johnson Jr.	F	12	3-4	0-0	0-1	5	1	0	0	6
Tre White	G	15	2-3	0-1	0-0	2	1	0	0	4
Ben Humrichous	F	39	1-9	1-9	0-0	5	0	0	2	3
Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn	G	9	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Jake Davis	F	2	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	0

Northwestern

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Nick Martinelli	F	42	11-20	2-4	3-6	6	1	1	2	27
Brooks Barnhizer	Guard	45	7-23	1-5	2-4	10	1	3	2	17
Jalen Leach	Not Available	43	6-14	0-3	4-5	3	5	0	0	16
Justin Mullins	G	28	2-6	1-5	0-0	6	4	0	1	5
Matthew Nicholson	Center	26	1-2	0-0	1-2	9	2	1	1	3
Luke Hunger	F	16	1-4	0-2	0-0	3	0	0	0	2
Ty Berry	Guard	24	0-3	0-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Blake Smith	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

75.2Possessions75.2

87.8Offensive Efficiency93.1

93.1Defensive Efficiency87.8

-5.3Net Efficiency5.3

44.0%Effective FG%41.7%

45.7%True Shooting %43.7%

14.4%Turnover Rate5.4%

16.4%Free Throw Rate23.6%

50.7%3-Point Rate29.2%

1.73Assist / Turnover3.25

Game Summary

Northwestern won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 75.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Turnover Rate, Free Throw Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.