Georgia Southern

21-16

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

18.7%Georgia Southern

81.3%Arkansas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -10.4

PROJECTED TOTAL164.8

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -435

Arkansas State

20-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreGeorgia Southern 77

Projected Total164.8

Projected ScoreArkansas State 88

Team Comparison

Georgia SouthernMetricArkansas State

49.1MMH Power Index57.7

112.3Offensive Efficiency113.1

110.6Defensive Efficiency105.3

1.7Net Efficiency7.8

-2.2Strength of Schedule-1.0

1.7Last 10 Net Efficiency15.2

72.0Tempo73.3

52.1%Effective FG%52.7%

14.5%Turnover Rate19.4%

28.6%Offensive Rebound %38.1%

39.5%Free Throw Rate39.6%

1.2Average Margin5.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY81.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

10–1

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–49.1), offensive efficiency (113.1–112.3), defensive efficiency (105.3–110.6), net efficiency (7.8–1.7).

Georgia Southern COUNTERS WITHball security (14.5–19.4).

Final

Georgia Southern

80—77

Arkansas State

Georgia Southern by 3 • 68.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Georgia SouthernTEAM STATArkansas State

24-53FG28-68

45.0%FG%41.0%

14-353PT10-33

40.0%3PT%30.0%

18-20FT11-21

90.0%FT%52.0%

29Rebounds44

6Offensive Rebounds20

14Assists18

10Turnovers13

10Steals5

2Blocks1

17Fouls12

Player Box Score

Georgia Southern

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tyren Moore	G	32	9-19	7-16	0-0	3	4	4	0	25
Alden Applewhite	F	38	4-9	0-3	8-8	6	1	1	0	16
Tsvet Sotirov	F	11	4-8	3-5	0-0	2	1	2	0	11
Spudd Webb	G	34	2-5	1-4	5-5	6	1	0	0	10
Nakavieon White	F	27	1-7	1-4	5-7	2	4	2	1	8
Khayri Dunn	G	19	2-3	2-3	0-0	2	2	0	0	6
Shainen Carter	F	20	2-2	0-0	0-0	3	1	1	1	4
Andres Burney	F	9	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Jefferson Koulibaly	G	6	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Dwayne Williams Jr	G	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Matt Hayman	G	29	7-16	6-13	1-2	5	3	0	0	21
Jaxon Ellingsworth	F	22	7-13	1-4	3-4	2	0	1	0	18
Chandler Jackson	G	36	5-8	0-1	2-6	4	10	0	1	12
Christian Harmon	G	33	3-12	3-9	0-1	4	2	0	0	9
Aly Tounkara	F	24	3-6	0-0	1-2	10	0	0	0	7
Jalen Hampton	G	34	2-6	0-1	1-1	12	3	1	0	5
Joey Chammaa	G	11	1-4	0-2	3-5	2	0	0	0	5
TJ Caldwell	G	11	0-3	0-3	0-0	1	0	3	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

68.8Possessions68.8

116.3Offensive Efficiency111.9

111.9Defensive Efficiency116.3

4.4Net Efficiency-4.4

58.5%Effective FG%48.5%

64.0%True Shooting %49.4%

15.0%Turnover Rate18.3%

37.7%Free Throw Rate30.9%

66.0%3-Point Rate48.5%

1.40Assist / Turnover1.38

Game Summary

Georgia Southern won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 68.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in True Shooting %, Effective FG%, Net Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.