Penn State

12-20

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

12.3%Penn State

87.7%Northwestern

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADNorthwestern -13.0

PROJECTED TOTAL150.9

MODEL MONEYLINENorthwestern -713

Northwestern

15-19

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScorePenn State 69

Projected Total150.9

Projected ScoreNorthwestern 82

Team Comparison

Penn StateMetricNorthwestern

42.3MMH Power Index55.4

109.2Offensive Efficiency111.6

117.6Defensive Efficiency109.8

-8.4Net Efficiency1.8

5.3Strength of Schedule5.6

-20.8Last 10 Net Efficiency-2.7

67.5Tempo65.6

53.4%Effective FG%51.9%

15.6%Turnover Rate13.0%

25.6%Offensive Rebound %28.2%

34.6%Free Throw Rate34.8%

-5.7Average Margin1.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Northwestern HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY87.7%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

10–1

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMNorthwestern holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (55.4–42.3), offensive efficiency (111.6–109.2), defensive efficiency (109.8–117.6), net efficiency (1.8–-8.4).

Penn State COUNTERS WITHshooting efficiency (53.4–51.9).

Final

Penn State

66—76

Northwestern

Northwestern by 10 • 63.6 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Penn StateTEAM STATNorthwestern

24-47FG27-53

51.0%FG%51.0%

7-163PT6-21

44.0%3PT%29.0%

11-14FT16-22

79.0%FT%73.0%

22Rebounds28

5Offensive Rebounds10

18Assists21

17Turnovers8

2Steals9

1Blocks—

15Fouls16

Player Box Score

Penn State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Ivan Juric	F	29	9-12	1-2	3-3	6	3	0	0	22
Josh Reed	F	31	5-12	1-3	3-3	4	1	0	0	14
Freddie Dilione V	G	31	5-10	3-5	1-2	0	4	1	1	14
Kayden Mingo	G	37	4-5	1-2	4-6	5	5	1	0	13
Melih Tunca	G	16	1-1	1-1	0-0	1	4	0	0	3
Dominick Stewart	G	28	0-2	0-1	0-0	3	1	0	0	0
Mason Blackwood	F	20	0-3	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Saša Ciani	F	8	0-2	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Northwestern

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Nick Martinelli	F	38	10-17	2-4	2-2	9	3	2	24
Jayden Reid	G	32	3-8	1-6	7-9	0	9	2	14
Tre Singleton	F	19	4-6	0-0	1-3	3	1	1	9
Jake West	G	28	3-7	0-3	2-2	1	5	0	8
Justin Mullins	G	16	2-5	2-4	1-2	3	1	0	7
Tyler Kropp	F	21	2-4	0-1	2-2	6	1	3	6
Jordan Clayton	G	22	2-2	1-1	0-0	3	1	1	5
Angelo Ciaravino	G	24	1-4	0-2	1-2	3	0	0	3

Advanced Game Stats

63.6Possessions63.6

103.8Offensive Efficiency119.5

119.5Defensive Efficiency103.8

-15.7Net Efficiency15.7

58.5%Effective FG%56.6%

61.5%True Shooting %59.9%

25.9%Turnover Rate13.0%

29.8%Free Throw Rate41.5%

34.0%3-Point Rate39.6%

1.06Assist / Turnover2.63

Game Summary

Northwestern won by 10 points. The game played at approximately 63.6 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.