Tarleton State

14-18

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

43.4%Tarleton State

56.6%Abilene Christian

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADAbilene Christian -2.0

PROJECTED TOTAL146.2

MODEL MONEYLINEAbilene Christian -130

Abilene Christian

14-19

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreTarleton State 72

Projected Total146.2

Projected ScoreAbilene Christian 74

Team Comparison

Tarleton StateMetricAbilene Christian

44.6MMH Power Index42.4

103.2Offensive Efficiency101.1

101.6Defensive Efficiency104.1

1.6Net Efficiency-3.0

-2.3Strength of Schedule-1.4

-6.7Last 10 Net Efficiency-5.3

72.2Tempo69.6

49.0%Effective FG%48.9%

19.9%Turnover Rate20.6%

31.8%Offensive Rebound %32.4%

42.8%Free Throw Rate42.0%

1.1Average Margin-2.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Tarleton State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY56.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMTarleton State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (44.6–42.4), offensive efficiency (103.2–101.1), defensive efficiency (101.6–104.1), net efficiency (1.6–-3.0).

Abilene Christian COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (-1.4–-2.3), recent form (-5.3–-6.7), offensive rebounding (32.4–31.8).

Final

Tarleton State

78—84

Abilene Christian

Abilene Christian by 6 • 76.5 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Tarleton StateTEAM STATAbilene Christian

24-58FG23-46

41.0%FG%50.0%

5-133PT5-15

38.0%3PT%33.0%

25-35FT33-45

71.0%FT%73.0%

33Rebounds32

11Offensive Rebounds6

9Assists14

13Turnovers15

9Steals5

3Blocks4

32Fouls28

Player Box Score

Tarleton State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Dior Johnson	G	33	7-17	2-4	12-14	5	3	1	1	28
Kaia Isaac	G	29	4-8	2-6	3-4	2	1	2	0	13
Jordan Mizell	G	31	5-7	0-0	0-1	3	3	3	0	10
Ocypher Owens	F	25	3-6	1-1	3-4	4	0	0	1	10
Chris Mpaka	F	20	3-5	0-0	3-4	6	0	1	1	9
Leroy Kelly IV	G	13	1-4	0-2	1-3	3	1	0	0	3
Damion Porter Jr.	G	12	1-2	0-0	0-0	3	0	2	0	2
DJ Dormu	G	7	0-4	0-0	2-2	2	0	0	0	2
Kade Douglas	G	17	0-2	0-0	1-3	0	0	0	0	1
Freddy Hicks	G	11	0-3	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	0
Matyas Vrabel	F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Abilene Christian

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Yaniel Rivera	G	28	6-8	5-6	3-3	2	2	1	1	20
Rich Smith	G	35	4-9	0-1	9-14	5	7	1	0	17
Bradyn Hubbard	F	36	4-11	0-4	7-9	6	1	0	1	15
Cbo Newton	G	26	2-4	0-1	5-8	1	3	0	0	9
Cade Hornecker	F	20	3-3	0-0	1-1	3	0	1	1	7
Zy Wright	G	16	2-2	0-0	3-4	1	0	0	0	7
Joseph Venzant	G	17	0-1	0-1	4-4	4	1	1	0	4
Christian Alston	G	12	1-6	0-2	1-2	3	0	1	0	3
Ma'Shy Hill	F	8	1-2	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	1	2
Joseph Scott	F	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Tylan Lewis	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

76.5Possessions76.5

102.0Offensive Efficiency109.8

109.8Defensive Efficiency102.0

-7.8Net Efficiency7.8

45.7%Effective FG%55.4%

52.3%True Shooting %62.3%

17.0%Turnover Rate19.6%

60.3%Free Throw Rate97.8%

22.4%3-Point Rate32.6%

0.69Assist / Turnover0.93

Game Summary

Abilene Christian won by 6 points. The game played at approximately 76.5 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.