Fresno State

13-19

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

19.3%Fresno State

80.7%Colorado State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADColorado State -9.2

PROJECTED TOTAL147.6

MODEL MONEYLINEColorado State -418

Colorado State

21-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreFresno State 69

Projected Total147.6

Projected ScoreColorado State 78

Team Comparison

Fresno StateMetricColorado State

47.1MMH Power Index55.4

104.9Offensive Efficiency117.1

104.9Defensive Efficiency109.9

0.0Net Efficiency7.2

1.5Strength of Schedule0.4

-6.0Last 10 Net Efficiency4.3

69.4Tempo64.7

51.3%Effective FG%58.6%

18.2%Turnover Rate18.3%

28.2%Offensive Rebound %29.2%

35.5%Free Throw Rate41.2%

0.0Average Margin4.6

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Colorado State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY80.7%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMColorado State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (55.4–47.1), offensive efficiency (117.1–104.9), net efficiency (7.2–0.0), recent form (4.3–-6.0).

Fresno State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (104.9–109.9), strength of schedule (1.5–0.4), ball security (18.2–18.3).

Final

Fresno State

63—67

Colorado State

Colorado State by 4 • 63.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Fresno StateTEAM STATColorado State

24-52FG23-59

46.0%FG%39.0%

7-233PT10-30

30.0%3PT%33.0%

8-8FT11-15

100.0%FT%73.0%

31Rebounds35

5Offensive Rebounds13

12Assists18

13Turnovers9

7Steals6

5Blocks2

15Fouls13

Player Box Score

Fresno State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jake Heidbreder	G	40	8-15	4-9	6-6	3	3	1	0	26
Gasper Kocevar	C	22	7-9	0-1	0-0	5	1	1	1	14
DeShawn Gory	F	39	5-14	2-7	0-0	10	2	1	2	12
Cameron Faas	G	30	2-3	1-2	0-0	1	0	2	0	5
Bastien Rieber	G	39	1-5	0-3	2-2	2	4	1	0	4
Wilson Jacques	C	29	1-6	0-1	0-0	7	2	1	2	2
Aram Soqui Urbano	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Colorado State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jase Butler	G	31	7-13	6-9	0-0	9	2	0	0	20
Carey Booth	F	35	6-12	0-2	6-8	6	0	0	1	18
Kyle Jorgensen	F	31	4-9	0-2	0-0	3	5	1	1	8
Brandon Rechsteiner	G	31	2-6	1-5	2-2	2	3	1	0	7
Josh Pascarelli	G	11	2-6	1-3	0-0	0	0	1	0	5
Jevin Muniz	G	33	1-6	1-4	1-2	3	7	1	0	4
Jojo McIver	G	10	1-5	1-4	0-0	3	1	1	0	3
Rashaan Mbemba	F	8	0-0	0-0	2-2	2	0	1	0	2
Augustinas Kiudulas	F	6	0-2	0-1	0-1	2	0	0	0	0
Darnez Slater	G	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

63.0Possessions63.0

100.0Offensive Efficiency106.3

106.3Defensive Efficiency100.0

-6.3Net Efficiency6.3

52.9%Effective FG%47.5%

56.5%True Shooting %50.7%

20.4%Turnover Rate14.5%

15.4%Free Throw Rate25.4%

44.2%3-Point Rate50.8%

0.92Assist / Turnover2.00

Game Summary

Colorado State won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 63.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.