Cal Poly

14-19

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

21.8%Cal Poly

78.2%UC San Diego

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADUC San Diego -10.1

PROJECTED TOTAL160.0

MODEL MONEYLINEUC San Diego -359

UC San Diego

23-11

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreCal Poly 75

Projected Total160.0

Projected ScoreUC San Diego 85

Team Comparison

Cal PolyMetricUC San Diego

46.5MMH Power Index53.4

107.2Offensive Efficiency108.4

111.0Defensive Efficiency100.7

-3.8Net Efficiency7.7

1.7Strength of Schedule-1.3

2.4Last 10 Net Efficiency5.4

76.6Tempo69.8

52.2%Effective FG%53.1%

19.8%Turnover Rate16.4%

29.9%Offensive Rebound %26.9%

35.8%Free Throw Rate33.2%

-2.9Average Margin5.4

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

UC San Diego HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY78.2%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMUC San Diego holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (53.4–46.5), offensive efficiency (108.4–107.2), defensive efficiency (100.7–111.0), net efficiency (7.7–-3.8).

Cal Poly COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (1.7–-1.3), offensive rebounding (29.9–26.9), free throw rate (35.8–33.2).

Final

Cal Poly

69—72

UC San Diego

UC San Diego by 3 • 73.3 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Cal PolyTEAM STATUC San Diego

25-65FG25-55

38.0%FG%45.0%

6-323PT5-20

19.0%3PT%25.0%

13-16FT17-25

81.0%FT%68.0%

39Rebounds38

11Offensive Rebounds7

15Assists15

12Turnovers13

5Steals5

—Blocks2

22Fouls17

Player Box Score

Cal Poly

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Hamad Mousa	G	35	8-22	0-6	5-5	6	3	1	21
Cayden Ward	G	31	3-9	1-5	6-6	9	4	0	13
Jackson Mosley	PG	12	3-6	2-4	1-2	2	0	0	9
Peter Bandelj	G	33	3-12	1-9	0-2	3	2	3	7
Guzman Vasilic	G	14	2-5	2-5	0-0	0	1	0	6
Austin Goode	F	34	2-5	0-1	0-0	4	3	1	4
Troy Plumtree	F	10	2-2	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	4
Ali Assran	F	11	1-1	0-0	1-1	5	1	0	3
Jake Davis	G	20	1-3	0-2	0-0	3	1	0	2

UC San Diego

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Hudson Mayes	G	31	10-16	1-1	2-8	6	2	2	0	23
Tom Beattie	G	35	8-12	2-5	2-2	5	4	0	0	20
Bol Dengdit	F	26	3-8	0-1	5-5	5	2	0	0	11
Alex Chaikin	G	33	2-8	2-8	2-2	4	3	0	1	8
Leo Beath	F	35	2-6	0-2	1-2	8	1	1	1	5
Emanuel Prospere II	G	15	0-3	0-1	3-4	3	1	1	0	3
Jaden Vance	F	20	0-2	0-2	2-2	1	1	1	0	2
Aidan Burke	G	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

73.3Possessions73.3

94.1Offensive Efficiency98.2

98.2Defensive Efficiency94.1

-4.1Net Efficiency4.1

43.1%Effective FG%50.0%

47.5%True Shooting %53.8%

16.3%Turnover Rate17.8%

24.6%Free Throw Rate45.5%

49.2%3-Point Rate36.4%

1.25Assist / Turnover1.15

Game Summary

UC San Diego won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 73.3 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.