NC State

20-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

18.4%NC State

81.6%Virginia

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADVirginia -10.0

PROJECTED TOTAL157.3

MODEL MONEYLINEVirginia -443

Virginia

30-6

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNC State 74

Projected Total157.3

Projected ScoreVirginia 84

Team Comparison

NC StateMetricVirginia

60.1MMH Power Index68.9

118.4Offensive Efficiency119.0

108.6Defensive Efficiency101.8

9.8Net Efficiency17.2

6.4Strength of Schedule5.2

-11.9Last 10 Net Efficiency6.4

70.2Tempo67.6

55.1%Effective FG%55.0%

13.1%Turnover Rate16.0%

28.2%Offensive Rebound %37.4%

35.7%Free Throw Rate33.2%

6.9Average Margin11.6

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Virginia HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY81.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMVirginia holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (68.9–60.1), offensive efficiency (119.0–118.4), defensive efficiency (101.8–108.6), net efficiency (17.2–9.8).

NC State COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (6.4–5.2), shooting efficiency (55.1–55.0), ball security (13.1–16.0).

Final

NC State

74—81

Virginia

Virginia by 7 • 68.6 estimated possessions

Team Stats

NC StateTEAM STATVirginia

21-57FG29-61

37.0%FG%48.0%

11-223PT12-25

50.0%3PT%48.0%

21-24FT11-14

88.0%FT%79.0%

33Rebounds34

10Offensive Rebounds9

12Assists16

10Turnovers10

5Steals6

7Blocks9

14Fouls17

Player Box Score

NC State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Paul McNeil Jr.	G	34	7-15	6-11	6-7	6	1	1	0	26
Ven-Allen Lubin	F	37	3-9	0-0	8-8	10	0	2	3	14
Matt Able	G	23	4-8	2-4	2-2	2	1	1	1	12
Quadir Copeland	G	36	3-10	0-1	3-3	3	6	0	3	9
Darrion Williams	F	24	2-6	2-4	1-2	1	3	0	0	7
Tre Holloman	G	26	1-4	1-2	0-0	1	1	0	0	3
Terrance Arceneaux	G	17	1-4	0-0	1-2	2	0	0	0	3
Musa Sagnia	F	3	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	0

Virginia

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Malik Thomas	G	20	5-10	1-3	5-5	4	2	1	0	16
Thijs De Ridder	F	28	5-9	2-5	3-5	5	1	1	1	15
Jacari White	G	20	5-8	3-6	0-0	1	0	1	0	13
Sam Lewis	G	26	4-10	4-5	0-0	3	1	0	0	12
Dallin Hall	G	31	3-6	1-3	1-2	5	5	0	0	8
Ugonna Onyenso	C	30	4-8	0-1	0-0	6	0	1	8	8
Chance Mallory	G	23	1-6	1-2	2-2	1	3	2	0	5
Johann Grunloh	C	10	2-3	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	4
Devin Tillis	F	12	0-1	0-0	0-0	5	4	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

68.6Possessions68.6

107.9Offensive Efficiency118.1

118.1Defensive Efficiency107.9

-10.2Net Efficiency10.2

46.5%Effective FG%57.4%

54.1%True Shooting %59.9%

14.6%Turnover Rate14.6%

42.1%Free Throw Rate23.0%

38.6%3-Point Rate41.0%

1.20Assist / Turnover1.60

Game Summary

Virginia won by 7 points. The game played at approximately 68.6 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.