Virginia

30-6

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

12.6%Virginia

87.4%Duke

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADDuke -12.7

PROJECTED TOTAL148.6

MODEL MONEYLINEDuke -694

Duke

35-3

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreVirginia 68

Projected Total148.6

Projected ScoreDuke 81

Team Comparison

VirginiaMetricDuke

68.9MMH Power Index81.7

119.0Offensive Efficiency122.2

101.8Defensive Efficiency95.2

17.2Net Efficiency27.0

5.2Strength of Schedule7.8

6.4Last 10 Net Efficiency18.7

67.6Tempo66.8

55.0%Effective FG%56.9%

16.0%Turnover Rate15.9%

37.4%Offensive Rebound %38.2%

33.2%Free Throw Rate39.0%

11.6Average Margin18.0

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Duke HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY87.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

11–0

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMDuke holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (81.7–68.9), offensive efficiency (122.2–119.0), defensive efficiency (95.2–101.8), net efficiency (27.0–17.2).

Final

Virginia

70—74

Duke

Duke by 4 • 63.6 estimated possessions

Team Stats

VirginiaTEAM STATDuke

24-54FG25-65

44.0%FG%38.0%

8-243PT8-25

33.0%3PT%32.0%

14-16FT16-20

88.0%FT%80.0%

31Rebounds41

10Offensive Rebounds20

9Assists15

12Turnovers9

3Steals6

12Blocks1

18Fouls13

Player Box Score

Virginia

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Malik Thomas	G	30	6-13	1-4	5-6	2	0	1	0	18
Sam Lewis	G	28	7-11	3-5	0-0	4	1	2	2	17
Dallin Hall	G	30	2-6	1-5	2-2	1	3	0	0	7
Chance Mallory	G	23	2-7	1-5	2-2	2	4	0	0	7
Ugonna Onyenso	C	22	2-4	0-0	2-2	8	0	0	9	6
Jacari White	G	9	2-4	2-4	0-0	3	0	0	0	6
Thijs De Ridder	F	29	1-6	0-1	3-4	6	0	0	0	5
Johann Grunloh	C	18	2-3	0-0	0-0	2	1	0	1	4
Devin Tillis	F	11	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Duke

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Isaiah Evans	G	29	6-14	4-8	4-4	2	1	0	0	20
Cayden Boozer	G	40	6-12	1-1	3-4	5	4	1	0	16
Cameron Boozer	F	35	3-17	1-5	6-9	8	8	1	0	13
Dame Sarr	G	35	4-9	1-6	0-0	4	2	2	0	9
Nikolas Khamenia	G	32	3-7	1-2	2-2	6	0	1	0	9
Maliq Brown	F	16	2-2	0-0	0-0	5	0	1	1	4
Darren Harris	G	13	1-4	0-3	1-1	3	0	0	0	3

Advanced Game Stats

63.6Possessions63.6

110.1Offensive Efficiency116.4

116.4Defensive Efficiency110.1

-6.3Net Efficiency6.3

51.9%Effective FG%44.6%

56.8%True Shooting %49.7%

18.9%Turnover Rate14.2%

29.6%Free Throw Rate30.8%

44.4%3-Point Rate38.5%

0.75Assist / Turnover1.67

Game Summary

Duke won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 63.6 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Effective FG%, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.