Dayton

25-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

22.0%Dayton

78.0%Saint Louis

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADSaint Louis -11.1

PROJECTED TOTAL152.6

MODEL MONEYLINESaint Louis -355

Saint Louis

29-6

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreDayton 71

Projected Total152.6

Projected ScoreSaint Louis 82

Team Comparison

DaytonMetricSaint Louis

59.9MMH Power Index66.7

108.5Offensive Efficiency120.8

101.5Defensive Efficiency97.6

7.0Net Efficiency23.2

5.7Strength of Schedule0.3

6.4Last 10 Net Efficiency0.1

68.3Tempo72.2

52.0%Effective FG%59.9%

16.9%Turnover Rate17.1%

26.7%Offensive Rebound %31.6%

47.6%Free Throw Rate33.9%

4.8Average Margin16.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Saint Louis HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY78.0%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMSaint Louis holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (66.7–59.9), offensive efficiency (120.8–108.5), defensive efficiency (97.6–101.5), net efficiency (23.2–7.0).

Dayton COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (5.7–0.3), recent form (6.4–0.1), ball security (16.9–17.1).

Final

Dayton

70—69

Saint Louis

Dayton by 1 • 68.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

DaytonTEAM STATSaint Louis

19-55FG22-51

35.0%FG%43.0%

8-243PT10-28

33.0%3PT%36.0%

24-29FT15-17

83.0%FT%88.0%

33Rebounds35

10Offensive Rebounds7

13Assists15

8Turnovers18

9Steals4

2Blocks6

17Fouls23

Player Box Score

Dayton

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jordan Derkack	G	27	6-12	4-7	12-15	6	1	1	0	28
Javon Bennett	G	36	4-11	2-6	7-8	1	2	4	0	17
De'Shayne Montgomery	G	25	5-14	0-4	0-0	7	1	1	0	10
Amaël L'Etang	F	37	3-8	1-3	0-0	4	4	0	2	7
Jacob Conner	F	16	1-2	1-2	2-2	2	0	1	0	5
Keonte Jones	G	19	0-3	0-0	3-4	3	1	2	0	3
Bryce Heard	G	24	0-1	0-1	0-0	3	1	0	0	0
Jaiun Simon	F	16	0-4	0-1	0-0	4	3	0	0	0

Saint Louis

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Amari McCottry	G	29	7-11	1-3	1-2	8	5	0	4	16
Robbie Avila	C	34	3-11	1-7	7-8	9	4	0	0	14
Ishan Sharma	F	26	2-7	2-6	5-5	2	1	0	0	11
Dion Brown	G	25	4-7	2-4	0-0	4	0	1	1	10
Trey Green	G	23	2-4	2-3	2-2	3	1	1	0	8
Quentin Jones	G	31	2-4	2-3	0-0	0	2	2	1	6
Kellen Thames	G	14	2-6	0-1	0-0	3	1	0	0	4
Brady Dunlap	F	12	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Paul Otieno	F	6	0-0	0-0	0-0	2	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

68.4Possessions68.4

102.3Offensive Efficiency100.9

100.9Defensive Efficiency102.3

1.5Net Efficiency-1.5

41.8%Effective FG%52.9%

50.9%True Shooting %58.4%

12.0%Turnover Rate25.7%

52.7%Free Throw Rate33.3%

43.6%3-Point Rate54.9%

1.63Assist / Turnover0.83

Game Summary

Dayton won by 1 points. The game played at approximately 68.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Turnover Rate, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.