Duke

35-3

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

75.4%Duke

24.6%Louisville

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADDuke -5.5

PROJECTED TOTAL153.2

MODEL MONEYLINEDuke -307

Louisville

24-11

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreDuke 79

Projected Total153.2

Projected ScoreLouisville 74

Team Comparison

DukeMetricLouisville

81.7MMH Power Index67.1

122.2Offensive Efficiency118.6

95.2Defensive Efficiency102.2

27.0Net Efficiency16.4

7.8Strength of Schedule6.0

18.7Last 10 Net Efficiency1.4

66.8Tempo71.0

56.9%Effective FG%56.9%

15.9%Turnover Rate16.8%

38.2%Offensive Rebound %32.3%

39.0%Free Throw Rate34.1%

18.0Average Margin11.7

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Duke HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY75.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

10–0

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMDuke holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (81.7–67.1), offensive efficiency (122.2–118.6), defensive efficiency (95.2–102.2), net efficiency (27.0–16.4).

Final

Duke

76—65

Louisville

Duke by 11 • 67.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

DukeTEAM STATLouisville

28-62FG19-51

45.0%FG%37.0%

8-303PT11-31

27.0%3PT%35.0%

12-14FT16-21

86.0%FT%76.0%

35Rebounds34

9Offensive Rebounds8

14Assists10

7Turnovers15

7Steals4

3Blocks1

18Fouls16

Player Box Score

Duke

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Cooper Flagg	Forward	28	8-17	1-3	3-3	12	1	1	1	20
Tyrese Proctor	Guard	36	6-13	1-6	0-0	2	1	0	0	13
Kon Knueppel	Guard	30	4-12	2-9	2-2	1	5	0	0	12
Sion James	Guard	25	2-5	1-2	6-6	3	2	1	1	11
Caleb Foster	G	13	3-7	2-6	1-2	2	1	1	0	9
Maliq Brown	F	29	3-3	0-0	0-1	11	2	3	1	6
Mason Gillis	Forward	17	1-2	1-2	0-0	2	1	1	0	3
Khaman Maluach	Center	11	1-1	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	2
Isaiah Evans	G	11	0-2	0-2	0-0	0	1	0	0	0

Louisville

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Terrence Edwards Jr.	Guard	31	6-12	3-4	6-6	2	1	2	0	21
Reyne Smith	Guard	33	4-11	3-9	2-2	3	0	0	0	13
Khani Rooths	F	18	2-4	2-4	4-6	6	0	1	0	10
Chucky Hepburn	Guard	37	2-11	2-7	2-2	3	5	1	0	8
J'Vonne Hadley	G	33	3-8	1-5	0-0	8	3	0	0	7
James Scott	F	26	2-2	0-0	1-3	8	1	0	0	5
Noah Waterman	Forward	22	0-3	0-2	1-2	4	0	0	1	1

Advanced Game Stats

67.4Possessions67.4

112.8Offensive Efficiency96.4

96.4Defensive Efficiency112.8

16.3Net Efficiency-16.3

51.6%Effective FG%48.0%

55.4%True Shooting %53.3%

10.5%Turnover Rate22.1%

22.6%Free Throw Rate41.2%

48.4%3-Point Rate60.8%

2.00Assist / Turnover0.67

Game Summary

Duke won by 11 points. The game played at approximately 67.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.