Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

64.4%Arkansas State

35.6%Memphis

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -3.0

PROJECTED TOTAL159.4

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -181

Memphis

13-19

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 81

Projected Total159.4

Projected ScoreMemphis 78

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricMemphis

57.7MMH Power Index47.8

113.1Offensive Efficiency104.6

105.3Defensive Efficiency106.5

7.8Net Efficiency-1.9

-1.0Strength of Schedule4.4

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency-11.1

73.3Tempo71.9

52.7%Effective FG%48.7%

19.4%Turnover Rate18.9%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %35.0%

39.6%Free Throw Rate35.1%

5.8Average Margin-1.4

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY64.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–47.8), offensive efficiency (113.1–104.6), defensive efficiency (105.3–106.5), net efficiency (7.8–-1.9).

Memphis COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (4.4–-1.0), ball security (18.9–19.4).

Final

Arkansas State

85—72

Memphis

Arkansas State by 13 • 81.5 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATMemphis

26-71FG21-59

37.0%FG%36.0%

12-363PT7-22

33.0%3PT%32.0%

21-27FT23-34

78.0%FT%68.0%

44Rebounds40

16Offensive Rebounds17

16Assists9

17Turnovers20

8Steals9

4Blocks3

25Fouls21

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Joseph Pinion	G	25	7-13	5-11	3-3	8	0	1	3	22
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	17	5-7	3-3	6-6	6	0	0	0	19
Taryn Todd	Guard	37	4-19	2-9	7-8	3	4	2	0	17
Kobe Julien	Forward	32	4-12	2-5	2-6	8	3	1	0	12
Cody Head	G	11	3-5	0-1	2-2	1	3	1	0	8
Rashaud Marshall	F	26	2-3	0-0	1-2	8	0	0	0	5
Izaiyah Nelson	F	10	1-2	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	2
Avery Felts	Guard	20	0-5	0-5	0-0	1	2	2	1	0
Terrance Ford Jr.	G	16	0-5	0-2	0-0	2	4	1	0	0
Kameron Johnson	Forward	6	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Memphis

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
P.J. Haggerty	G	36	8-15	2-3	11-13	3	2	4	0	29
Dain Dainja	Forward	26	4-10	0-0	8-14	12	2	0	0	16
Colby Rogers	Guard	29	4-14	3-9	0-0	1	1	1	0	11
Nick Jourdain	Forward	33	3-8	0-3	1-2	8	1	2	2	7
Tyrese Hunter	Guard	28	1-7	1-3	1-2	4	3	1	0	4
PJ Carter	G	13	1-3	1-3	0-0	4	0	0	0	3
Damarien Yates	G	6	0-0	0-0	2-2	1	0	1	1	2
Baraka Okojie	G	15	0-1	0-0	0-1	1	0	0	0	0
Moussa Cisse	Center	10	0-0	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	0
Jared Harris	G	4	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

81.5Possessions81.5

104.3Offensive Efficiency88.3

88.3Defensive Efficiency104.3

16.0Net Efficiency-16.0

45.1%Effective FG%41.5%

50.7%True Shooting %47.9%

20.0%Turnover Rate25.6%

38.0%Free Throw Rate57.6%

50.7%3-Point Rate37.3%

0.94Assist / Turnover0.45

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 13 points. The game played at approximately 81.5 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.