Idaho State

13-20

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

25.4%Idaho State

74.6%Arizona State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArizona State -7.2

PROJECTED TOTAL155.3

MODEL MONEYLINEArizona State -294

Arizona State

17-16

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIdaho State 74

Projected Total155.3

Projected ScoreArizona State 81

Team Comparison

Idaho StateMetricArizona State

45.9MMH Power Index51

111.0Offensive Efficiency108.1

113.4Defensive Efficiency110.9

-2.4Net Efficiency-2.8

0.2Strength of Schedule7.0

-9.6Last 10 Net Efficiency-7.5

67.1Tempo70.6

52.2%Effective FG%51.3%

16.5%Turnover Rate17.1%

33.9%Offensive Rebound %29.6%

39.1%Free Throw Rate40.2%

-1.6Average Margin-1.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Idaho State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY74.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

6–5

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIdaho State holds the advantage in offensive efficiency (111.0–108.1), net efficiency (-2.4–-2.8), shooting efficiency (52.2–51.3), ball security (16.5–17.1).

Arizona State COUNTERS WITHMMH Power Index (51.0–45.9), defensive efficiency (110.9–113.4), strength of schedule (7.0–0.2).

Final

Idaho State

48—55

Arizona State

Arizona State by 7 • 66.5 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Idaho StateTEAM STATArizona State

17-67FG20-55

25.0%FG%36.0%

4-283PT7-24

14.0%3PT%29.0%

10-13FT8-12

77.0%FT%67.0%

46Rebounds44

16Offensive Rebounds8

6Assists12

9Turnovers14

4Steals6

4Blocks9

16Fouls15

Player Box Score

Idaho State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Isaiah Griffin	F	32	4-12	2-6	2-2	7	0	0	0	12
Jake O'Neil	Guard	31	5-13	0-2	0-3	11	1	2	1	10
Connor Hollenbeck	F	27	4-9	0-3	2-2	5	0	0	0	10
Dylan Darling	G	32	1-11	0-2	6-6	3	3	1	1	8
Blake Daberkow	F	13	1-4	1-4	0-0	1	0	0	0	3
Jaedyn Brown	G	5	1-4	1-4	0-0	1	0	0	0	3
AJ Burgin	Guard	11	1-6	0-4	0-0	3	1	0	0	2
Evan Otten	F	27	0-3	0-0	0-0	6	0	1	2	0
Jackson Greene	Forward	14	0-2	0-1	0-0	3	0	0	0	0
Quentin Meza	G	8	0-3	0-2	0-0	1	1	0	0	0

Arizona State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Alston Mason	Guard	35	5-9	2-4	2-3	2	1	0	1	14
BJ Freeman	Guard	22	4-9	1-5	3-4	8	4	1	2	12
Joson Sanon	G	30	4-9	2-5	1-2	3	3	1	0	11
Shawn Phillips Jr.	C	19	4-7	0-0	0-0	7	0	0	0	8
Adam Miller	G	26	1-2	1-2	0-0	3	2	0	0	3
Amier Ali	G	11	1-3	1-2	0-0	3	0	0	0	3
Jayden Quaintance	F	19	0-6	0-2	2-3	1	1	2	6	2
Austin Nunez	G	11	1-3	0-2	0-0	2	0	1	0	2
Basheer Jihad	Forward	27	0-7	0-2	0-0	8	1	1	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

66.5Possessions66.5

72.2Offensive Efficiency82.7

82.7Defensive Efficiency72.2

-10.5Net Efficiency10.5

28.4%Effective FG%42.7%

32.8%True Shooting %45.3%

13.6%Turnover Rate21.0%

19.4%Free Throw Rate21.8%

41.8%3-Point Rate43.6%

0.67Assist / Turnover0.86

Game Summary

Arizona State won by 7 points. The game played at approximately 66.5 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Effective FG%, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.