St. John's

30-6

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

14.4%St. John's

85.6%Duke

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADDuke -11.7

PROJECTED TOTAL149.3

MODEL MONEYLINEDuke -594

Duke

35-3

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreSt. John's 69

Projected Total149.3

Projected ScoreDuke 80

Team Comparison

St. John'sMetricDuke

70.3MMH Power Index81.7

114.4Offensive Efficiency122.2

97.6Defensive Efficiency95.2

16.8Net Efficiency27.0

5.5Strength of Schedule7.8

11.4Last 10 Net Efficiency18.7

70.9Tempo66.8

51.3%Effective FG%56.9%

14.3%Turnover Rate15.9%

34.8%Offensive Rebound %38.2%

41.1%Free Throw Rate39.0%

11.9Average Margin18.0

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Duke HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY85.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMDuke holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (81.7–70.3), offensive efficiency (122.2–114.4), defensive efficiency (95.2–97.6), net efficiency (27.0–16.8).

St. John's COUNTERS WITHball security (14.3–15.9), free throw rate (41.1–39.0).

Final

St. John's

75—80

Duke

Duke by 5 • 64.1 estimated possessions

Team Stats

St. John'sTEAM STATDuke

29-64FG30-56

45.0%FG%54.0%

13-323PT5-14

41.0%3PT%36.0%

4-8FT15-24

50.0%FT%63.0%

27Rebounds40

10Offensive Rebounds12

19Assists13

6Turnovers9

7Steals4

3Blocks5

20Fouls13

Player Box Score

St. John's

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Zuby Ejiofor	F	39	6-17	2-5	3-4	8	6	1	1	17
Bryce Hopkins	F	29	6-7	2-2	1-3	7	3	1	0	15
Dillon Mitchell	F	33	6-7	1-1	0-1	4	3	2	0	13
Ruben Prey	F	13	4-4	4-4	0-0	2	0	1	1	12
Dylan Darling	G	24	3-7	2-5	0-0	0	3	1	0	8
Oziyah Sellers	G	28	2-9	1-4	0-0	1	1	0	1	5
Ian Jackson	G	16	2-8	1-7	0-0	2	2	0	0	5
Joson Sanon	G	15	0-4	0-3	0-0	0	1	1	0	0
Lefteris Liotopoulos	G	3	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Duke

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Isaiah Evans	G	34	10-15	4-8	1-2	4	0	0	0	25
Cameron Boozer	F	39	7-16	0-1	8-9	10	3	0	1	22
Caleb Foster	G	19	5-8	0-1	1-2	3	2	0	0	11
Cayden Boozer	G	23	3-7	1-1	0-1	2	3	0	0	7
Maliq Brown	F	22	2-4	0-1	2-2	8	1	2	4	6
Nikolas Khamenia	G	16	1-2	0-1	2-2	1	0	1	0	4
Patrick Ngongba II	C	17	1-1	0-0	1-6	2	1	0	0	3
Dame Sarr	G	26	1-3	0-1	0-0	6	3	1	0	2
Darren Harris	G	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

64.1Possessions64.1

117.0Offensive Efficiency124.8

124.8Defensive Efficiency117.0

-7.8Net Efficiency7.8

55.5%Effective FG%58.0%

55.3%True Shooting %59.3%

9.4%Turnover Rate14.0%

12.5%Free Throw Rate42.9%

50.0%3-Point Rate25.0%

3.17Assist / Turnover1.44

Game Summary

Duke won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 64.1 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.