Illinois State

23-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

29.4%Illinois State

70.6%Wake Forest

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADWake Forest -4.9

PROJECTED TOTAL151.3

MODEL MONEYLINEWake Forest -240

Wake Forest

18-17

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIllinois State 73

Projected Total151.3

Projected ScoreWake Forest 78

Team Comparison

Illinois StateMetricWake Forest

54.3MMH Power Index57.6

110.6Offensive Efficiency112.4

101.4Defensive Efficiency109.7

9.2Net Efficiency2.7

1.0Strength of Schedule7.2

-4.4Last 10 Net Efficiency-0.1

67.5Tempo70.2

54.3%Effective FG%52.8%

16.8%Turnover Rate15.5%

28.3%Offensive Rebound %30.0%

32.0%Free Throw Rate36.1%

6.2Average Margin1.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Wake Forest HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY70.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMWake Forest holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.6–54.3), offensive efficiency (112.4–110.6), strength of schedule (7.2–1.0), recent form (-0.1–-4.4).

Illinois State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (101.4–109.7), net efficiency (9.2–2.7), shooting efficiency (54.3–52.8).

Final

Illinois State

78—75

Wake Forest

Illinois State by 3 • 69.5 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Illinois StateTEAM STATWake Forest

25-61FG28-56

41.0%FG%50.0%

10-333PT5-16

30.0%3PT%31.0%

18-21FT14-21

86.0%FT%67.0%

31Rebounds35

10Offensive Rebounds8

12Assists15

9Turnovers11

6Steals7

2Blocks4

18Fouls15

Player Box Score

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Ty Pence	G	27	8-11	3-4	4-4	4	1	2	0	23
Johnny Kinziger	G	40	6-14	5-10	2-2	3	5	2	0	19
Chase Walker	F	17	5-11	0-2	5-5	4	1	2	1	15
Landon Wolf	G	30	3-10	2-8	0-2	4	2	0	0	8
Boden Skunberg	G	29	2-9	0-5	3-4	9	2	0	0	7
Mason Klabo	G	22	1-3	0-2	2-2	2	1	0	0	4
Brandon Lieb	F	10	0-0	0-0	2-2	1	0	0	1	2
Landon Moore	G	13	0-2	0-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Ty'Reek Coleman	G	12	0-1	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	0

Wake Forest

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tre'Von Spillers	F	29	11-11	0-0	2-3	8	1	1	1	24
Juke Harris	G	39	7-19	2-7	4-6	8	4	1	0	20
Omaha Biliew	F	32	3-3	1-1	4-4	6	0	1	3	11
Myles Colvin	G	25	3-7	1-2	3-4	2	2	0	0	10
Mekhi Mason	G	18	1-2	1-2	0-0	0	2	1	0	3
Isaac Carr	G	11	1-2	0-0	1-2	3	0	1	0	3
Nate Calmese	G	21	1-6	0-2	0-0	2	5	0	0	2
Cooper Schwieger	F	17	1-5	0-2	0-0	1	1	1	0	2
Sebastian Akins	G	8	0-1	0-0	0-2	2	0	1	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

69.5Possessions69.5

112.2Offensive Efficiency107.9

107.9Defensive Efficiency112.2

4.3Net Efficiency-4.3

49.2%Effective FG%54.5%

54.9%True Shooting %56.8%

12.9%Turnover Rate15.9%

34.4%Free Throw Rate37.5%

54.1%3-Point Rate28.6%

1.33Assist / Turnover1.36

Game Summary

Illinois State won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 69.5 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Effective FG%, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.