Illinois State

23-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

24.4%Illinois State

75.6%Dayton

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADDayton -6.8

PROJECTED TOTAL143.6

MODEL MONEYLINEDayton -310

Dayton

25-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIllinois State 68

Projected Total143.6

Projected ScoreDayton 75

Team Comparison

Illinois StateMetricDayton

54.3MMH Power Index59.9

110.6Offensive Efficiency108.5

101.4Defensive Efficiency101.5

9.2Net Efficiency7.0

1.0Strength of Schedule5.7

-4.4Last 10 Net Efficiency6.4

67.5Tempo68.3

54.3%Effective FG%52.0%

16.8%Turnover Rate16.9%

28.3%Offensive Rebound %26.7%

32.0%Free Throw Rate47.6%

6.2Average Margin4.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY75.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois State holds the advantage in offensive efficiency (110.6–108.5), defensive efficiency (101.4–101.5), net efficiency (9.2–7.0), shooting efficiency (54.3–52.0).

Dayton COUNTERS WITHMMH Power Index (59.9–54.3), strength of schedule (5.7–1.0), recent form (6.4–-4.4).

Final

Illinois State

61—55

Dayton

Illinois State by 6 • 62.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Illinois StateTEAM STATDayton

22-40FG19-63

55.0%FG%30.0%

6-163PT3-25

38.0%3PT%12.0%

11-18FT14-19

61.0%FT%74.0%

36Rebounds35

2Offensive Rebounds13

12Assists9

15Turnovers5

2Steals8

3Blocks3

15Fouls19

Player Box Score

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Johnny Kinziger	G	39	5-9	4-7	2-3	2	3	0	0	16
Chase Walker	F	27	4-5	0-0	5-11	10	2	0	2	13
Ty Pence	G	28	5-9	0-2	2-2	5	1	0	1	12
Boden Skunberg	G	25	3-8	0-3	0-0	4	4	0	0	6
Ty'Reek Coleman	G	20	2-3	0-1	0-0	2	0	2	0	4
Brandon Lieb	F	12	1-1	0-0	2-2	5	0	0	0	4
Landon Wolf	G	33	1-3	1-2	0-0	7	1	0	0	3
Mason Klabo	G	14	1-2	1-1	0-0	1	1	0	0	3
Landon Moore	G	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Dayton

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Bryce Heard	G	21	2-4	1-3	7-7	4	0	0	0	12
Jordan Derkack	G	28	4-12	0-2	3-4	6	1	1	0	11
Amaël L'Etang	F	31	4-10	2-6	0-0	6	2	0	2	10
Keonte Jones	G	36	4-11	0-2	1-4	6	2	4	1	9
De'Shayne Montgomery	G	22	3-7	0-1	0-0	2	0	0	0	6
Damon Friery	F	16	1-4	0-2	2-2	4	1	2	0	4
Malcolm Thomas	F	7	1-5	0-1	1-2	2	1	1	0	3
Jacob Conner	F	21	0-6	0-5	0-0	1	1	0	0	0
Javon Bennett	G	9	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	1	0	0	0
Jaiun Simon	F	7	0-2	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Sean Pouedet	G	2	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

62.8Possessions62.8

97.1Offensive Efficiency87.6

87.6Defensive Efficiency97.1

9.6Net Efficiency-9.6

62.5%Effective FG%32.5%

62.8%True Shooting %38.2%

24.4%Turnover Rate7.8%

45.0%Free Throw Rate30.2%

40.0%3-Point Rate39.7%

0.80Assist / Turnover1.80

Game Summary

Illinois State won by 6 points. The game played at approximately 62.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Effective FG%, True Shooting %, Net Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.