Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

13.9%Arkansas State

86.1%Alabama

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADAlabama -11.5

PROJECTED TOTAL173.1

MODEL MONEYLINEAlabama -619

Alabama

24-10

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 81

Projected Total173.1

Projected ScoreAlabama 92

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricAlabama

57.7MMH Power Index69.5

113.1Offensive Efficiency121.6

105.3Defensive Efficiency111.2

7.8Net Efficiency10.4

-1.0Strength of Schedule9.4

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency9.5

73.3Tempo74.7

52.7%Effective FG%54.9%

19.4%Turnover Rate13.0%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %32.1%

39.6%Free Throw Rate36.9%

5.8Average Margin7.7

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Alabama HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY86.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMAlabama holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (69.5–57.7), offensive efficiency (121.6–113.1), net efficiency (10.4–7.8), strength of schedule (9.4–-1.0).

Arkansas State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (105.3–111.2), recent form (15.2–9.5), offensive rebounding (38.1–32.1).

Final

Arkansas State

79—88

Alabama

Alabama by 9 • 84.5 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATAlabama

25-62FG27-66

40.0%FG%41.0%

6-283PT6-31

21.0%3PT%19.0%

23-36FT28-44

64.0%FT%64.0%

41Rebounds50

8Offensive Rebounds14

11Assists13

13Turnovers12

7Steals5

5Blocks4

28Fouls24

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Kobe Julien	Forward	34	4-13	2-8	10-12	6	3	0	1	20
Taryn Todd	Guard	32	6-18	1-5	5-7	6	3	3	2	18
Rashaud Marshall	F	27	5-6	0-0	1-2	8	0	1	1	11
Derrian Ford	G	17	3-7	0-3	1-2	1	0	0	0	7
Terrance Ford Jr.	G	31	1-5	1-3	3-8	4	3	0	0	6
Justin Johnson	G	17	2-3	0-1	2-3	0	1	1	0	6
Joseph Pinion	G	15	2-4	1-3	0-0	1	0	2	0	5
Josh Hill	F	11	2-4	1-3	0-0	3	0	0	1	5
Cody Head	G	4	0-0	0-0	1-2	1	0	0	0	1
Avery Felts	Guard	8	0-0	0-0	0-0	2	1	0	0	0
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	4	0-2	0-2	0-0	2	0	0	0	0

Alabama

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Mark Sears	Guard	34	4-12	0-5	11-16	5	2	0	0	19
Labaron Philon Jr.	G	29	3-9	1-4	5-9	5	3	1	0	12
Grant Nelson	Forward	27	4-7	0-2	4-6	6	2	1	0	12
Clifford Omoruyi	Center	17	5-6	0-0	2-4	9	0	0	1	12
Derrion Reid	F	20	4-8	1-2	1-2	3	1	0	1	10
Latrell Wrightsell	G	30	2-11	1-9	4-4	5	2	2	0	9
Mouhamed Dioubate	F	12	2-3	1-1	1-2	5	1	1	0	6
Aden Holloway	G	10	2-5	2-4	0-0	0	0	0	0	6
Jarin Stevenson	F	10	1-2	0-1	0-1	5	1	0	1	2
Aiden Sherrell	F	11	0-3	0-3	0-0	5	1	0	1	0

Advanced Game Stats

84.5Possessions84.5

93.5Offensive Efficiency104.1

104.1Defensive Efficiency93.5

-10.7Net Efficiency10.7

45.2%Effective FG%45.5%

49.9%True Shooting %50.6%

15.5%Turnover Rate14.1%

58.1%Free Throw Rate66.7%

45.2%3-Point Rate47.0%

0.85Assist / Turnover1.08

Game Summary

Alabama won by 9 points. The game played at approximately 84.5 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.