Arkansas

28-9

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

36.2%Arkansas

63.8%Michigan State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADMichigan State -4.7

PROJECTED TOTAL163.1

MODEL MONEYLINEMichigan State -176

Michigan State

27-8

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas 79

Projected Total163.1

Projected ScoreMichigan State 84

Team Comparison

ArkansasMetricMichigan State

69.3MMH Power Index69.8

122.2Offensive Efficiency117.0

109.8Defensive Efficiency101.5

12.4Net Efficiency15.5

8.6Strength of Schedule7.2

3.4Last 10 Net Efficiency9.5

73.8Tempo67.3

56.4%Effective FG%54.1%

12.2%Turnover Rate17.2%

31.8%Offensive Rebound %37.7%

36.5%Free Throw Rate36.6%

9.2Average Margin10.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Michigan State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY63.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMMichigan State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (69.8–69.3), defensive efficiency (101.5–109.8), net efficiency (15.5–12.4), recent form (9.5–3.4).

Arkansas COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (122.2–117.0), strength of schedule (8.6–7.2), shooting efficiency (56.4–54.1).

Final

Arkansas

66—69

Michigan State

Michigan State by 3 • 68.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

ArkansasTEAM STATMichigan State

22-56FG25-61

39.0%FG%41.0%

7-283PT1-14

25.0%3PT%7.0%

15-23FT18-26

65.0%FT%69.0%

33Rebounds45

13Offensive Rebounds19

16Assists18

14Turnovers14

11Steals7

6Blocks4

21Fouls15

Player Box Score

Arkansas

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Darius Acuff Jr.	G	33	5-16	2-8	4-7	2	6	2	0	16
Meleek Thomas	G	29	5-15	2-9	4-4	6	2	1	0	16
D.J. Wagner	G	31	4-6	2-4	3-4	2	3	3	0	13
Billy Richmond III	G	29	3-8	1-4	1-2	6	0	0	1	8
Nick Pringle	F	28	2-2	0-0	2-4	7	1	2	3	6
Malique Ewin	F	15	2-3	0-0	0-0	2	0	1	1	4
Trevon Brazile	F	16	1-5	0-2	1-2	2	0	1	1	3
Karter Knox	G	18	0-1	0-1	0-0	4	4	1	0	0
Isaiah Sealy	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Michigan State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Cam Ward	F	23	8-13	0-1	2-4	10	0	2	0	18
Coen Carr	F	31	4-7	0-1	7-8	7	3	1	0	15
Jaxon Kohler	F	31	5-13	0-3	0-0	7	3	1	0	10
Carson Cooper	C	20	3-5	0-0	3-4	2	2	1	2	9
Jordan Scott	F	26	2-4	0-1	2-4	7	0	0	1	6
Trey Fort	G	15	2-6	1-4	0-0	2	0	1	1	5
Jeremy Fears Jr.	G	35	0-7	0-2	4-6	3	9	1	0	4
Jesse McCulloch	F	3	1-2	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Divine Ugochukwu	G	11	0-2	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	0	0
Kur Teng	G	5	0-2	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

68.2Possessions68.2

96.8Offensive Efficiency101.2

101.2Defensive Efficiency96.8

-4.4Net Efficiency4.4

45.5%Effective FG%41.8%

49.3%True Shooting %47.0%

20.6%Turnover Rate20.5%

41.1%Free Throw Rate42.6%

50.0%3-Point Rate23.0%

1.14Assist / Turnover1.29

Game Summary

Michigan State won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 68.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.