Duke

35-3

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

70.5%Duke

29.5%Arkansas

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADDuke -4.8

PROJECTED TOTAL161.9

MODEL MONEYLINEDuke -239

Arkansas

28-9

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreDuke 83

Projected Total161.9

Projected ScoreArkansas 79

Team Comparison

DukeMetricArkansas

81.7MMH Power Index69.3

122.2Offensive Efficiency122.2

95.2Defensive Efficiency109.8

27.0Net Efficiency12.4

7.8Strength of Schedule8.6

18.7Last 10 Net Efficiency3.4

66.8Tempo73.8

56.9%Effective FG%56.4%

15.9%Turnover Rate12.2%

38.2%Offensive Rebound %31.8%

39.0%Free Throw Rate36.5%

18.0Average Margin9.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Duke HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY70.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMDuke holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (81.7–69.3), defensive efficiency (95.2–109.8), net efficiency (27.0–12.4), recent form (18.7–3.4).

Arkansas COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (8.6–7.8), ball security (12.2–15.9).

Final

Duke

80—71

Arkansas

Duke by 9 • 70.1 estimated possessions

Team Stats

DukeTEAM STATArkansas

29-59FG26-64

49.0%FG%41.0%

8-233PT10-30

35.0%3PT%33.0%

14-21FT9-11

67.0%FT%82.0%

37Rebounds29

12Offensive Rebounds10

16Assists17

12Turnovers12

6Steals8

1Blocks3

13Fouls18

Player Box Score

Duke

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Cameron Boozer	F	36	13-18	2-4	7-11	9	3	2	0	35
Caleb Foster	G	33	5-10	2-3	3-4	5	8	1	0	15
Patrick Ngongba II	C	29	4-8	1-2	2-2	5	2	1	1	11
Isaiah Evans	G	32	3-10	3-9	0-0	5	0	0	0	9
Nikolas Khamenia	G	28	1-4	0-2	2-4	5	0	0	0	4
Dame Sarr	G	17	2-6	0-3	0-0	2	0	1	0	4
Maliq Brown	F	15	1-1	0-0	0-0	4	3	1	0	2
Cayden Boozer	G	8	0-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Darren Harris	G	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Arkansas

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Darius Acuff Jr.	G	38	8-17	4-8	1-2	2	5	1	0	21
Meleek Thomas	G	26	5-15	3-10	0-0	1	2	2	0	13
Trevon Brazile	F	34	3-7	2-5	3-4	11	2	2	1	11
Billy Richmond III	G	24	4-6	1-2	2-2	5	2	1	2	11
Malique Ewin	F	20	3-7	0-0	1-1	3	1	0	0	7
Nick Pringle	F	19	1-3	0-0	1-1	1	2	0	0	3
D.J. Wagner	G	16	1-5	0-3	1-1	1	3	1	0	3
Karter Knox	G	23	1-4	0-2	0-0	2	0	1	0	2

Advanced Game Stats

70.1Possessions70.1

114.1Offensive Efficiency101.3

101.3Defensive Efficiency114.1

12.8Net Efficiency-12.8

55.9%Effective FG%48.4%

58.0%True Shooting %51.3%

17.4%Turnover Rate16.8%

35.6%Free Throw Rate17.2%

39.0%3-Point Rate46.9%

1.33Assist / Turnover1.42

Game Summary

Duke won by 9 points. The game played at approximately 70.1 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.