North Carolina

24-9

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

41.0%North Carolina

59.0%Kentucky

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADKentucky -3.1

PROJECTED TOTAL155.8

MODEL MONEYLINEKentucky -144

Kentucky

22-14

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNorth Carolina 76

Projected Total155.8

Projected ScoreKentucky 79

Team Comparison

North CarolinaMetricKentucky

65.2MMH Power Index63.9

115.5Offensive Efficiency115.2

103.8Defensive Efficiency106.3

11.7Net Efficiency8.9

7.6Strength of Schedule8.7

-1.8Last 10 Net Efficiency-1.0

69.0Tempo69.9

54.6%Effective FG%53.2%

13.9%Turnover Rate15.4%

31.1%Offensive Rebound %33.2%

38.1%Free Throw Rate38.0%

8.1Average Margin6.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

North Carolina HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY59.0%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMNorth Carolina holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (65.2–63.9), offensive efficiency (115.5–115.2), defensive efficiency (103.8–106.3), net efficiency (11.7–8.9).

Kentucky COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (8.7–7.6), recent form (-1.0–-1.8), offensive rebounding (33.2–31.1).

Final

North Carolina

67—64

Kentucky

North Carolina by 3 • 63.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

North CarolinaTEAM STATKentucky

26-64FG23-53

41.0%FG%43.0%

6-203PT1-13

30.0%3PT%8.0%

9-15FT17-22

60.0%FT%77.0%

41Rebounds30

20Offensive Rebounds8

13Assists8

12Turnovers9

5Steals8

2Blocks7

19Fouls18

Player Box Score

North Carolina

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Henri Veesaar	C	36	8-12	0-1	1-1	10	0	0	0	17
Caleb Wilson	F	35	5-19	0-2	5-8	12	6	2	1	15
Luka Bogavac	G	29	4-11	3-6	1-4	4	2	0	0	12
Derek Dixon	G	24	3-8	1-4	2-2	3	2	0	0	9
Jonathan Powell	G	21	2-3	2-3	0-0	2	0	1	0	6
Jarin Stevenson	F	34	2-5	0-2	0-0	5	2	2	1	4
Kyan Evans	G	16	1-5	0-2	0-0	0	1	0	0	2
Zayden High	F	4	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Jaydon Young	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Kentucky

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Otega Oweh	G	33	6-11	0-1	4-6	4	2	2	2	16
Collin Chandler	G	34	4-9	0-2	4-4	2	1	2	0	12
Denzel Aberdeen	G	35	4-13	0-3	2-2	4	4	0	1	10
Malachi Moreno	C	31	2-2	0-0	4-6	9	0	2	3	8
Andrija Jelavic	F	24	3-6	0-3	0-0	4	0	0	1	6
Brandon Garrison	F	9	2-3	1-1	1-2	1	0	0	0	6
Kam Williams	G	16	1-4	0-2	0-0	3	0	1	0	2
Trent Noah	F	13	0-1	0-1	2-2	0	1	1	0	2
Jasper Johnson	G	5	1-4	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	2

Advanced Game Stats

63.8Possessions63.8

105.0Offensive Efficiency100.3

100.3Defensive Efficiency105.0

4.7Net Efficiency-4.7

45.3%Effective FG%44.3%

47.1%True Shooting %50.4%

19.0%Turnover Rate14.0%

23.4%Free Throw Rate41.5%

31.3%3-Point Rate24.5%

1.08Assist / Turnover0.89

Game Summary

North Carolina won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 63.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Turnover Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.