NC State

20-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

27.1%NC State

72.9%Auburn

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADAuburn -5.4

PROJECTED TOTAL165.2

MODEL MONEYLINEAuburn -269

Auburn

21-16

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNC State 80

Projected Total165.2

Projected ScoreAuburn 85

Team Comparison

NC StateMetricAuburn

60.1MMH Power Index64.4

118.4Offensive Efficiency118.8

108.6Defensive Efficiency113.0

9.8Net Efficiency5.8

6.4Strength of Schedule7.5

-11.9Last 10 Net Efficiency8.0

70.2Tempo69.8

55.1%Effective FG%53.1%

13.1%Turnover Rate14.5%

28.2%Offensive Rebound %36.5%

35.7%Free Throw Rate43.8%

6.9Average Margin4.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Auburn HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY72.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

6–5

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMAuburn holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (64.4–60.1), offensive efficiency (118.8–118.4), strength of schedule (7.5–6.4), recent form (8.0–-11.9).

NC State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (108.6–113.0), net efficiency (9.8–5.8), shooting efficiency (55.1–53.1).

Final

NC State

73—83

Auburn

Auburn by 10 • 70.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

NC StateTEAM STATAuburn

26-64FG26-44

41.0%FG%59.0%

10-303PT12-22

33.0%3PT%55.0%

11-13FT19-22

85.0%FT%86.0%

22Rebounds35

8Offensive Rebounds5

14Assists10

9Turnovers20

14Steals3

2Blocks9

19Fouls10

Player Box Score

NC State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Quadir Copeland	G	28	8-12	2-3	4-6	1	3	3	0	22
Tre Holloman	G	29	5-11	4-9	2-2	3	4	1	0	16
Ven-Allen Lubin	F	28	4-6	1-1	3-3	2	0	1	0	12
Darrion Williams	F	33	4-11	1-5	2-2	2	3	0	0	11
Paul McNeil Jr.	G	26	3-9	1-5	0-0	4	2	2	0	7
Matt Able	G	23	2-11	1-6	0-0	3	1	3	0	5
Terrance Arceneaux	G	13	0-3	0-1	0-0	3	1	1	1	0
Musa Sagnia	F	11	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	2	1	0
Alyn Breed	G	8	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	0
Scottie Ebube	C	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Auburn

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Kevin Overton	G	38	8-13	6-9	7-7	9	0	0	0	29
Keyshawn Hall	F	36	9-14	5-7	5-5	10	1	1	0	28
Sebastian Williams-Adams	F	27	3-3	0-0	1-2	1	4	2	1	7
Tahaad Pettiford	G	32	1-7	0-3	4-5	3	1	0	4	6
Elyjah Freeman	G	18	2-3	0-1	2-2	5	1	0	2	6
KeShawn Murphy	F	15	1-1	1-1	0-0	1	1	0	0	3
Filip Jovic	F	24	1-1	0-0	0-1	5	1	0	2	2
Kaden Magwood	G	8	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	2
Blake Muschalek	G	2	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

70.4Possessions70.4

103.7Offensive Efficiency117.9

117.9Defensive Efficiency103.7

-14.2Net Efficiency14.2

48.4%Effective FG%72.7%

52.0%True Shooting %76.2%

12.6%Turnover Rate28.8%

20.3%Free Throw Rate50.0%

46.9%3-Point Rate50.0%

1.56Assist / Turnover0.50

Game Summary

Auburn won by 10 points. The game played at approximately 70.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.