Duke

35-3

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

69.4%Duke

30.6%Michigan State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADDuke -4.2

PROJECTED TOTAL147.2

MODEL MONEYLINEDuke -227

Michigan State

27-8

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreDuke 76

Projected Total147.2

Projected ScoreMichigan State 72

Team Comparison

DukeMetricMichigan State

81.7MMH Power Index69.8

122.2Offensive Efficiency117.0

95.2Defensive Efficiency101.5

27.0Net Efficiency15.5

7.8Strength of Schedule7.2

18.7Last 10 Net Efficiency9.5

66.8Tempo67.3

56.9%Effective FG%54.1%

15.9%Turnover Rate17.2%

38.2%Offensive Rebound %37.7%

39.0%Free Throw Rate36.6%

18.0Average Margin10.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Duke HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY69.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

11–0

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMDuke holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (81.7–69.8), offensive efficiency (122.2–117.0), defensive efficiency (95.2–101.5), net efficiency (27.0–15.5).

Final

Duke

66—60

Michigan State

Duke by 6 • 64.3 estimated possessions

Team Stats

DukeTEAM STATMichigan State

21-55FG21-66

38.0%FG%32.0%

9-293PT8-22

31.0%3PT%36.0%

15-23FT10-14

65.0%FT%71.0%

44Rebounds43

10Offensive Rebounds13

12Assists18

8Turnovers5

5Steals5

4Blocks5

18Fouls15

Player Box Score

Duke

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Cameron Boozer	F	34	7-13	1-3	3-4	15	5	2	1	18
Caleb Foster	G	29	4-9	1-4	3-4	4	2	0	1	12
Nikolas Khamenia	G	34	3-7	3-6	1-2	9	0	1	0	10
Isaiah Evans	G	26	2-8	2-6	3-3	3	0	1	0	9
Patrick Ngongba II	C	26	1-3	0-1	4-8	6	0	0	2	6
Dame Sarr	G	20	1-4	1-2	1-2	2	1	0	0	4
Darren Harris	G	5	1-3	1-3	0-0	0	0	0	0	3
Maliq Brown	F	14	1-2	0-1	0-0	2	2	1	0	2
Cayden Boozer	G	12	1-6	0-3	0-0	0	2	0	0	2

Michigan State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Carson Cooper	C	32	7-13	0-0	2-3	16	1	0	1	16
Jaxon Kohler	F	31	5-11	4-6	0-0	7	2	1	1	14
Coen Carr	F	35	4-13	0-3	2-5	4	0	1	1	10
Jeremy Fears Jr.	G	35	0-10	0-2	6-6	2	13	2	0	6
Jordan Scott	F	26	2-4	2-4	0-0	5	1	1	2	6
Divine Ugochukwu	G	8	1-2	1-1	0-0	2	1	0	0	3
Jesse McCulloch	F	4	1-2	1-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	3
Trey Fort	G	8	1-2	0-1	0-0	2	0	0	0	2
Kur Teng	G	11	0-5	0-3	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Cam Ward	F	10	0-4	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

64.3Possessions64.3

102.6Offensive Efficiency93.3

93.3Defensive Efficiency102.6

9.3Net Efficiency-9.3

46.4%Effective FG%37.9%

50.1%True Shooting %41.3%

12.5%Turnover Rate7.7%

41.8%Free Throw Rate21.2%

52.7%3-Point Rate33.3%

1.50Assist / Turnover3.60

Game Summary

Duke won by 6 points. The game played at approximately 64.3 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.