Michigan State

27-8

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

92.8%Michigan State

7.2%Penn State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADMichigan State -15.4

PROJECTED TOTAL152.1

MODEL MONEYLINEMichigan State -1289

Penn State

12-20

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMichigan State 84

Projected Total152.1

Projected ScorePenn State 68

Team Comparison

Michigan StateMetricPenn State

69.8MMH Power Index42.3

117.0Offensive Efficiency109.2

101.5Defensive Efficiency117.6

15.5Net Efficiency-8.4

7.2Strength of Schedule5.3

9.5Last 10 Net Efficiency-20.8

67.3Tempo67.5

54.1%Effective FG%53.4%

17.2%Turnover Rate15.6%

37.7%Offensive Rebound %25.6%

36.6%Free Throw Rate34.6%

10.5Average Margin-5.7

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Michigan State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY92.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

10–1

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMMichigan State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (69.8–42.3), offensive efficiency (117.0–109.2), defensive efficiency (101.5–117.6), net efficiency (15.5–-8.4).

Penn State COUNTERS WITHball security (15.6–17.2).

Final

Michigan State

76—72

Penn State

Michigan State by 4 • 69.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Michigan StateTEAM STATPenn State

24-52FG28-66

46.0%FG%42.0%

10-183PT8-29

56.0%3PT%28.0%

18-21FT8-9

86.0%FT%89.0%

40Rebounds27

11Offensive Rebounds9

14Assists14

17Turnovers9

6Steals10

3Blocks4

13Fouls18

Player Box Score

Michigan State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Divine Ugochukwu	G	27	8-10	5-5	2-2	1	1	3	0	23
Jaxon Kohler	F	33	5-8	0-1	0-0	12	0	1	1	10
Carson Cooper	C	30	2-8	0-0	6-6	6	0	0	1	10
Jeremy Fears Jr.	G	29	2-5	0-1	4-6	3	9	0	0	8
Kur Teng	G	12	2-4	2-2	2-2	1	0	0	0	8
Jordan Scott	F	17	2-4	2-3	1-1	5	1	1	1	7
Coen Carr	F	27	1-4	0-1	1-2	4	1	1	0	3
Trey Fort	G	4	1-4	1-3	0-0	1	0	0	0	3
Jesse McCulloch	F	10	0-2	0-1	2-2	1	0	0	0	2
Cam Ward	F	5	1-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Denham Wojcik	G	6	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	2	0	0	0

Penn State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Freddie Dilione V	G	32	8-15	3-8	4-5	1	3	3	1	23
Kayden Mingo	G	34	5-13	1-4	0-0	7	8	2	0	11
Ivan Juric	F	30	4-9	2-5	0-0	5	0	0	1	10
Eli Rice	G	24	3-8	1-4	2-2	1	0	1	1	9
Tibor Mirtic	F	18	3-5	0-0	0-0	2	1	4	0	6
Melih Tunca	G	13	2-7	1-3	0-0	1	0	0	0	5
Josh Reed	F	26	2-6	0-3	0-0	6	1	0	0	4
Saša Ciani	F	10	1-1	0-0	2-2	1	0	0	1	4
Dominick Stewart	G	8	0-2	0-2	0-0	1	1	0	0	0
Mason Blackwood	F	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

69.2Possessions69.2

109.8Offensive Efficiency104.0

104.0Defensive Efficiency109.8

5.8Net Efficiency-5.8

55.8%Effective FG%48.5%

61.3%True Shooting %51.2%

25.0%Turnover Rate12.8%

40.4%Free Throw Rate13.6%

34.6%3-Point Rate43.9%

0.82Assist / Turnover1.56

Game Summary

Michigan State won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 69.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Turnover Rate, Net Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.