Florida Gulf Coast

16-18

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

24.8%Florida Gulf Coast

75.2%Central Arkansas

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADCentral Arkansas -8.3

PROJECTED TOTAL157.8

MODEL MONEYLINECentral Arkansas -303

Central Arkansas

22-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreFlorida Gulf Coast 75

Projected Total157.8

Projected ScoreCentral Arkansas 83

Team Comparison

Florida Gulf CoastMetricCentral Arkansas

48.6MMH Power Index54

110.5Offensive Efficiency113.9

109.2Defensive Efficiency105.2

1.3Net Efficiency8.7

-1.8Strength of Schedule-3.9

0.7Last 10 Net Efficiency9.8

70.0Tempo71.0

52.1%Effective FG%54.3%

15.7%Turnover Rate15.3%

32.3%Offensive Rebound %29.6%

29.9%Free Throw Rate30.7%

0.9Average Margin6.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Central Arkansas HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY75.2%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMCentral Arkansas holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.0–48.6), offensive efficiency (113.9–110.5), defensive efficiency (105.2–109.2), net efficiency (8.7–1.3).

Florida Gulf Coast COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (-1.8–-3.9), offensive rebounding (32.3–29.6).

Final

Florida Gulf Coast

83—85

Central Arkansas

Central Arkansas by 2 • 64.1 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Florida Gulf CoastTEAM STATCentral Arkansas

29-54FG30-58

54.0%FG%52.0%

14-313PT9-23

45.0%3PT%39.0%

11-12FT16-20

92.0%FT%80.0%

26Rebounds32

5Offensive Rebounds11

18Assists19

10Turnovers7

5Steals5

3Blocks2

17Fouls13

Player Box Score

Florida Gulf Coast

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
J.R. Konieczny	F	34	8-16	3-10	6-6	4	4	0	0	25
Darren Williams	G	26	5-9	5-8	0-0	2	1	0	0	15
Rory Stewart	F	27	4-8	4-8	0-0	5	0	2	0	12
Rahmir Barno	G	40	5-7	1-1	0-1	5	11	0	0	11
Isaiah Malone	F	25	4-4	0-0	3-3	3	1	2	2	11
Jordan Ellerbee	G	21	3-8	1-3	0-0	1	0	0	0	7
Michael Duax	F	17	0-1	0-1	2-2	2	1	0	1	2
Tristen Guillouette	C	9	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	0
Gabe Tanner	F	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Central Arkansas

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Ty Robinson	G	36	9-15	7-10	2-2	7	3	1	0	27
Camren Hunter	G	35	6-15	1-4	4-4	7	4	1	1	17
Javion Guy-King	G	30	5-10	0-4	6-7	6	4	1	0	16
Cole McCormick	F	26	4-4	1-1	3-3	2	2	0	0	12
Malchiah Marable	F	21	4-6	0-0	0-2	5	2	1	0	8
Luke Moore	G	32	1-4	0-1	1-2	1	3	1	1	3
Truman Byrne	F	9	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	2
Harry Beauchamp	G	9	0-2	0-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Tyler Lee	G	2	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

64.1Possessions64.1

129.5Offensive Efficiency132.6

132.6Defensive Efficiency129.5

-3.1Net Efficiency3.1

66.7%Effective FG%59.5%

69.5%True Shooting %63.0%

15.5%Turnover Rate11.0%

22.2%Free Throw Rate34.5%

57.4%3-Point Rate39.7%

1.80Assist / Turnover2.71

Game Summary

Central Arkansas won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 64.1 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Effective FG%, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.