Cal State Northridge

20-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

41.8%Cal State Northridge

58.2%UC Davis

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADUC Davis -3.3

PROJECTED TOTAL160.7

MODEL MONEYLINEUC Davis -139

UC Davis

19-14

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreCal State Northridge 79

Projected Total160.7

Projected ScoreUC Davis 82

Team Comparison

Cal State NorthridgeMetricUC Davis

50MMH Power Index48.4

107.3Offensive Efficiency107.2

105.2Defensive Efficiency103.7

2.1Net Efficiency3.5

-0.6Strength of Schedule-1.9

1.8Last 10 Net Efficiency-0.1

75.9Tempo72.4

51.0%Effective FG%52.3%

17.3%Turnover Rate17.7%

32.9%Offensive Rebound %26.7%

34.7%Free Throw Rate41.5%

1.6Average Margin2.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Cal State Northridge HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY58.2%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

6–5

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMCal State Northridge holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (50.0–48.4), offensive efficiency (107.3–107.2), strength of schedule (-0.6–-1.9), recent form (1.8–-0.1).

UC Davis COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.7–105.2), net efficiency (3.5–2.1), shooting efficiency (52.3–51.0).

Final

Cal State Northridge

80—89

UC Davis

UC Davis by 9 • 76.5 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Cal State NorthridgeTEAM STATUC Davis

28-62FG30-59

45.0%FG%51.0%

8-233PT15-30

35.0%3PT%50.0%

16-26FT14-18

62.0%FT%78.0%

38Rebounds33

13Offensive Rebounds7

17Assists24

16Turnovers15

10Steals10

3Blocks2

17Fouls19

Player Box Score

Cal State Northridge

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Josiah Davis	G	32	8-14	0-1	5-9	6	4	2	0	21
Larry Hughes II	G	35	4-10	4-9	5-6	2	0	2	0	17
Davius Loury	F	29	3-7	3-5	2-4	4	5	4	2	11
Mahmoud Fofana	F	26	5-7	0-0	1-1	7	5	0	0	11
Joshua O'Garro	G	34	4-11	0-2	2-4	7	1	1	1	10
Jai Chisolm	G	10	1-4	1-3	0-0	1	0	0	0	3
Aleks Szymczyk	C	9	1-1	0-0	1-2	4	0	0	0	3
Jordan Brinson	G	14	1-6	0-3	0-0	2	1	0	0	2
Grady Lewis	F	5	1-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
James Evans Jr.	G	6	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	1	1	0	0

UC Davis

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Connor Sevilla	G	32	9-15	5-10	0-1	3	2	1	0	23
Marcus Wilson	G	23	6-10	5-6	2-2	1	5	1	0	19
Isaiah Chappell	F	32	6-9	4-7	0-2	3	0	2	0	16
Carl Daughtery Jr.	G	23	4-7	1-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	9
Niko Rocak	F	21	3-5	0-0	2-2	8	5	0	1	8
Nils Cooper	G	21	2-7	0-2	3-4	4	2	2	1	7
Jalen Stokes	G	18	0-1	0-1	3-3	5	3	2	0	3
Brayden Fagbemi	G	19	0-4	0-1	2-2	3	6	2	0	2
Omer Suljanovic	F	7	0-1	0-1	2-2	0	1	0	0	2
Abdullah Amzil	F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Cyril Franklin Jr.	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Chase Rawlins	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

76.5Possessions76.5

104.6Offensive Efficiency116.3

116.3Defensive Efficiency104.6

-11.8Net Efficiency11.8

51.6%Effective FG%63.6%

53.8%True Shooting %65.9%

20.7%Turnover Rate19.9%

41.9%Free Throw Rate30.5%

37.1%3-Point Rate50.8%

1.06Assist / Turnover1.60

Game Summary

UC Davis won by 9 points. The game played at approximately 76.5 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, True Shooting %, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.