Sacramento State

10-21

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

30.3%Sacramento State

69.7%Idaho State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIdaho State -6.4

PROJECTED TOTAL158.5

MODEL MONEYLINEIdaho State -230

Idaho State

13-20

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreSacramento State 76

Projected Total158.5

Projected ScoreIdaho State 82

Team Comparison

Sacramento StateMetricIdaho State

43MMH Power Index45.9

106.1Offensive Efficiency111.0

112.0Defensive Efficiency113.4

-5.9Net Efficiency-2.4

0.9Strength of Schedule0.2

-7.8Last 10 Net Efficiency-9.6

73.2Tempo67.1

48.5%Effective FG%52.2%

14.2%Turnover Rate16.5%

25.1%Offensive Rebound %33.9%

41.8%Free Throw Rate39.1%

-4.3Average Margin-1.6

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Idaho State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY69.7%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

6–5

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIdaho State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (45.9–43.0), offensive efficiency (111.0–106.1), net efficiency (-2.4–-5.9), shooting efficiency (52.2–48.5).

Sacramento State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (112.0–113.4), strength of schedule (0.9–0.2), recent form (-7.8–-9.6).

Final

Sacramento State

84—97

Idaho State

Idaho State by 13 • 80.7 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Sacramento StateTEAM STATIdaho State

26-63FG32-65

41.0%FG%49.0%

5-193PT14-30

26.0%3PT%47.0%

27-37FT19-27

73.0%FT%70.0%

35Rebounds38

10Offensive Rebounds9

7Assists19

12Turnovers10

6Steals9

3Blocks5

23Fouls24

Player Box Score

Sacramento State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Mikey Williams	G	35	13-23	3-7	5-7	3	2	1	0	34
Prophet Johnson	G	34	5-14	1-4	3-3	9	1	1	0	14
Mark Lavrenov	F	22	3-4	0-0	6-8	4	0	0	0	12
Arman Madi	G	30	3-7	0-3	4-8	9	0	2	1	10
Jayden Teat	G	15	2-6	1-4	1-2	1	1	0	0	6
Shaqir O'Neal	F	14	0-1	0-0	6-7	3	2	1	1	6
Brandon Gardner	F	13	0-2	0-0	2-2	3	0	0	1	2
Jahni Summers	G	24	0-3	0-1	0-0	3	0	0	0	0
Taj Glover	G	11	0-3	0-0	0-0	0	1	1	0	0
Isaiah Bronson	G	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Idaho State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jamison Guerra	PG	33	6-9	4-5	8-10	3	6	1	0	24
Lachlan Brewer	G	32	6-9	4-6	2-3	6	2	2	1	18
Connor Hollenbeck	F	27	5-9	4-7	2-3	2	3	1	0	16
Caleb Van De Griend	F	19	5-8	0-0	2-4	10	4	0	0	12
Blake Daberkow	F	6	4-5	0-0	2-2	0	0	0	0	10
Evan Otten	F	15	3-6	0-0	1-3	8	1	0	3	7
Martin Kheil	G	31	2-9	1-5	0-0	4	1	2	0	5
Gus Etchison	PG	6	1-4	1-3	0-0	0	1	1	0	3
Louis Bond	G	10	0-3	0-1	2-2	1	0	0	0	2
Cheikh Sow	G	20	0-3	0-3	0-0	2	1	2	1	0
Quin Patterson	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

80.7Possessions80.7

104.1Offensive Efficiency120.2

120.2Defensive Efficiency104.1

-16.1Net Efficiency16.1

45.2%Effective FG%60.0%

52.1%True Shooting %62.3%

14.5%Turnover Rate12.7%

58.7%Free Throw Rate41.5%

30.2%3-Point Rate46.2%

0.58Assist / Turnover1.90

Game Summary

Idaho State won by 13 points. The game played at approximately 80.7 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.