UC Santa Barbara

18-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

42.9%UC Santa Barbara

57.1%Cal State Fullerton

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADCal State Fullerton -2.0

PROJECTED TOTAL161.4

MODEL MONEYLINECal State Fullerton -133

Cal State Fullerton

18-16

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreUC Santa Barbara 80

Projected Total161.4

Projected ScoreCal State Fullerton 82

Team Comparison

UC Santa BarbaraMetricCal State Fullerton

51.4MMH Power Index49.4

113.2Offensive Efficiency108.8

106.1Defensive Efficiency107.1

7.1Net Efficiency1.7

-2.0Strength of Schedule-1.2

-1.7Last 10 Net Efficiency2.7

68.5Tempo76.3

54.8%Effective FG%52.6%

18.7%Turnover Rate15.1%

32.5%Offensive Rebound %25.5%

37.9%Free Throw Rate39.6%

4.8Average Margin1.3

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

UC Santa Barbara HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY57.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMUC Santa Barbara holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (51.4–49.4), offensive efficiency (113.2–108.8), defensive efficiency (106.1–107.1), net efficiency (7.1–1.7).

Cal State Fullerton COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (-1.2–-2.0), recent form (2.7–-1.7), ball security (15.1–18.7).

Final

UC Santa Barbara

84—95

Cal State Fullerton

Cal State Fullerton by 11 • 76.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

UC Santa BarbaraTEAM STATCal State Fullerton

30-57FG30-54

53.0%FG%56.0%

14-343PT5-17

41.0%3PT%29.0%

10-10FT30-37

100.0%FT%81.0%

34Rebounds22

10Offensive Rebounds5

19Assists9

24Turnovers10

5Steals16

—Blocks2

27Fouls17

Player Box Score

UC Santa Barbara

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Aidan Mahaney	G	36	8-15	4-11	3-3	0	4	1	23
CJ Shaw	G	33	6-8	3-5	3-3	1	1	1	18
Hosana Kitenge	F	23	7-10	1-1	1-1	7	6	1	16
Zion Sensley	G	31	4-12	4-10	2-2	11	1	0	14
Zachiah Clark	G	12	2-5	2-4	0-0	1	1	1	6
Colin Smith	F	18	1-3	0-2	1-1	2	1	0	3
Marvin McGhee IV	G	26	1-2	0-1	0-0	3	5	0	2
Michael Simcoe	F	15	1-2	0-0	0-0	5	0	1	2
Evans Kipruto	C	6	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0

Cal State Fullerton

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jefferson De La Cruz Monegro	G	32	5-10	1-3	14-14	6	1	0	0	25
KJ Garris	G	25	6-11	2-5	4-5	3	0	3	0	18
Christian Williams	G	35	5-8	0-2	7-8	2	1	5	0	17
Bryce Cofield	G	26	7-10	0-0	3-7	5	1	4	1	17
Joshua Ward	G	38	4-8	1-3	2-2	3	5	1	1	11
Landon Seaman	F	12	2-3	0-1	0-1	1	1	0	0	4
Kendrick De Luna	F	28	1-2	1-1	0-0	0	0	3	0	3
Davis White	G	4	0-2	0-2	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

76.2Possessions76.2

110.2Offensive Efficiency124.7

124.7Defensive Efficiency110.2

-14.4Net Efficiency14.4

64.9%Effective FG%60.2%

68.0%True Shooting %66.4%

31.7%Turnover Rate13.1%

17.5%Free Throw Rate68.5%

59.6%3-Point Rate31.5%

0.79Assist / Turnover0.90

Game Summary

Cal State Fullerton won by 11 points. The game played at approximately 76.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Turnover Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.