Northwestern

15-19

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

10.8%Northwestern

89.2%Michigan State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADMichigan State -14.7

PROJECTED TOTAL147.2

MODEL MONEYLINEMichigan State -826

Michigan State

27-8

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNorthwestern 66

Projected Total147.2

Projected ScoreMichigan State 81

Team Comparison

NorthwesternMetricMichigan State

55.4MMH Power Index69.8

111.6Offensive Efficiency117.0

109.8Defensive Efficiency101.5

1.8Net Efficiency15.5

5.6Strength of Schedule7.2

-2.7Last 10 Net Efficiency9.5

65.6Tempo67.3

51.9%Effective FG%54.1%

13.0%Turnover Rate17.2%

28.2%Offensive Rebound %37.7%

34.8%Free Throw Rate36.6%

1.2Average Margin10.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Michigan State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY89.2%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

10–1

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMMichigan State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (69.8–55.4), offensive efficiency (117.0–111.6), defensive efficiency (101.5–109.8), net efficiency (15.5–1.8).

Northwestern COUNTERS WITHball security (13.0–17.2).

Final

Northwestern

66—76

Michigan State

Michigan State by 10 • 67.1 estimated possessions

Team Stats

NorthwesternTEAM STATMichigan State

22-58FG24-49

38.0%FG%49.0%

6-263PT5-18

23.0%3PT%28.0%

16-20FT23-33

80.0%FT%70.0%

25Rebounds42

8Offensive Rebounds11

14Assists17

6Turnovers15

9Steals3

2Blocks2

24Fouls15

Player Box Score

Northwestern

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Nick Martinelli	F	39	8-11	2-3	10-10	5	0	1	0	28
Tyler Kropp	F	10	3-3	1-1	2-2	1	0	0	0	9
Jayden Reid	G	29	3-14	0-2	2-2	2	8	4	0	8
Max Green	G	24	2-8	2-7	0-0	1	1	2	0	6
Angelo Ciaravino	G	17	2-5	1-3	0-0	3	0	0	2	5
Justin Mullins	G	20	2-6	0-3	0-0	2	1	0	0	4
Tre Singleton	F	19	1-4	0-2	1-2	6	1	1	0	3
Arrinten Page	F	11	1-2	0-0	0-2	1	0	1	0	2
Jordan Clayton	G	20	0-4	0-4	1-2	1	0	0	0	1
Jake West	G	11	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	3	0	0	0

Michigan State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Carson Cooper	C	33	6-6	0-0	6-8	9	0	0	1	18
Jaxon Kohler	F	30	5-9	3-6	2-2	8	1	0	1	15
Jeremy Fears Jr.	G	29	4-11	0-1	7-7	1	5	0	0	15
Coen Carr	F	26	3-6	0-2	2-6	6	0	2	0	8
Cam Ward	F	15	3-5	0-0	1-1	7	0	0	0	7
Kur Teng	G	20	2-5	1-4	1-2	6	2	0	0	6
Jordan Scott	F	18	1-4	1-4	3-5	2	2	0	0	6
Divine Ugochukwu	G	22	0-1	0-1	1-2	2	5	0	0	1
Trey Fort	G	3	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	0
Denham Wojcik	G	3	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	0
Jesse McCulloch	F	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

67.1Possessions67.1

98.4Offensive Efficiency113.3

113.3Defensive Efficiency98.4

-14.9Net Efficiency14.9

43.1%Effective FG%54.1%

48.9%True Shooting %58.8%

9.2%Turnover Rate21.8%

34.5%Free Throw Rate67.3%

44.8%3-Point Rate36.7%

2.33Assist / Turnover1.13

Game Summary

Michigan State won by 10 points. The game played at approximately 67.1 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.