Virginia

30-6

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

42.3%Virginia

57.7%Louisville

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADLouisville -3.4

PROJECTED TOTAL155.8

MODEL MONEYLINELouisville -136

Louisville

24-11

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreVirginia 76

Projected Total155.8

Projected ScoreLouisville 80

Team Comparison

VirginiaMetricLouisville

68.9MMH Power Index67.1

119.0Offensive Efficiency118.6

101.8Defensive Efficiency102.2

17.2Net Efficiency16.4

5.2Strength of Schedule6.0

6.4Last 10 Net Efficiency1.4

67.6Tempo71.0

55.0%Effective FG%56.9%

16.0%Turnover Rate16.8%

37.4%Offensive Rebound %32.3%

33.2%Free Throw Rate34.1%

11.6Average Margin11.7

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Virginia HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY57.7%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMVirginia holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (68.9–67.1), offensive efficiency (119.0–118.6), defensive efficiency (101.8–102.2), net efficiency (17.2–16.4).

Louisville COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (6.0–5.2), shooting efficiency (56.9–55.0), free throw rate (34.1–33.2).

Final

Virginia

79—70

Louisville

Virginia by 9 • 66.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

VirginiaTEAM STATLouisville

21-53FG24-67

40.0%FG%36.0%

14-343PT10-38

41.0%3PT%26.0%

23-29FT12-18

79.0%FT%67.0%

44Rebounds36

14Offensive Rebounds17

15Assists13

13Turnovers8

4Steals8

9Blocks2

22Fouls21

Player Box Score

Virginia

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Malik Thomas	G	25	6-9	6-8	1-2	5	3	0	0	19
Johann Grunloh	C	26	4-8	3-4	5-6	7	0	1	4	16
Sam Lewis	G	30	4-10	2-7	5-6	4	2	1	1	15
Thijs De Ridder	F	28	3-10	0-3	3-4	8	2	0	1	9
Chance Mallory	G	23	1-6	0-4	5-5	0	4	1	0	7
Dallin Hall	G	32	1-4	1-3	2-3	12	4	1	0	5
Jacari White	G	12	1-3	1-3	2-3	2	0	0	0	5
Ugonna Onyenso	C	14	1-2	1-1	0-0	3	0	0	3	3
Devin Tillis	F	10	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Louisville

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Isaac McKneely	G	38	7-16	5-14	4-4	5	0	2	0	23
Ryan Conwell	G	37	5-21	3-12	1-3	7	3	2	1	14
J'Vonne Hadley	G	35	4-7	0-2	3-4	5	1	3	0	11
Aly Khalifa	C	18	3-7	2-6	1-2	2	3	0	1	9
Sananda Fru	F	24	3-5	0-0	0-2	5	0	0	0	6
Adrian Wooley	G	29	1-9	0-4	3-3	5	4	1	0	5
Kasean Pryor	F	4	1-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Kobe Rodgers	G	15	0-0	0-0	0-0	3	2	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

66.2Possessions66.2

119.3Offensive Efficiency105.7

105.7Defensive Efficiency119.3

13.6Net Efficiency-13.6

52.8%Effective FG%43.3%

59.2%True Shooting %46.3%

19.8%Turnover Rate12.0%

54.7%Free Throw Rate26.9%

64.2%3-Point Rate56.7%

1.15Assist / Turnover1.63

Game Summary

Virginia won by 9 points. The game played at approximately 66.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.