St. John's

30-6

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

66.9%St. John's

33.1%Villanova

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADSt. John's -3.6

PROJECTED TOTAL151.3

MODEL MONEYLINESt. John's -202

Villanova

24-9

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreSt. John's 77

Projected Total151.3

Projected ScoreVillanova 74

Team Comparison

St. John'sMetricVillanova

70.3MMH Power Index59.4

114.4Offensive Efficiency114.7

97.6Defensive Efficiency105.9

16.8Net Efficiency8.8

5.5Strength of Schedule4.4

11.4Last 10 Net Efficiency-1.1

70.9Tempo67.3

51.3%Effective FG%53.9%

14.3%Turnover Rate15.0%

34.8%Offensive Rebound %31.8%

41.1%Free Throw Rate31.4%

11.9Average Margin5.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

St. John's HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY66.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMSt. John's holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (70.3–59.4), defensive efficiency (97.6–105.9), net efficiency (16.8–8.8), strength of schedule (5.5–4.4).

Villanova COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (114.7–114.4), shooting efficiency (53.9–51.3).

Final

St. John's

86—79

Villanova

St. John's by 7 • 71.1 estimated possessions

Team Stats

St. John'sTEAM STATVillanova

30-58FG25-54

52.0%FG%46.0%

5-153PT11-26

33.0%3PT%42.0%

21-31FT18-24

68.0%FT%75.0%

31Rebounds28

12Offensive Rebounds7

13Assists13

9Turnovers14

8Steals4

3Blocks3

17Fouls21

Player Box Score

St. John's

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Bryce Hopkins	F	36	6-14	0-0	8-10	6	2	1	1	20
Ian Jackson	G	23	7-12	1-4	3-3	0	2	2	0	18
Zuby Ejiofor	F	37	7-12	1-3	2-7	7	1	0	1	17
Dillon Mitchell	F	35	2-3	0-0	6-7	10	2	2	0	10
Oziyah Sellers	G	30	4-9	1-4	0-0	1	1	1	1	9
Joson Sanon	G	17	2-6	2-4	0-0	0	1	0	0	6
Sadiku Ibine Ayo	F	8	2-2	0-0	0-0	2	1	1	0	4
Ruben Prey	F	3	0-0	0-0	2-2	2	0	0	0	2
Dylan Darling	G	10	0-0	0-0	0-2	0	3	1	0	0
Lefteris Liotopoulos	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Villanova

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tyler Perkins	G	27	7-12	3-7	6-6	5	3	0	0	23
Devin Askew	G	31	6-10	3-4	6-7	4	1	0	0	21
Bryce Lindsay	G	29	3-8	2-6	3-4	1	2	0	0	11
Duke Brennan	F	32	4-8	0-0	1-3	9	1	0	0	9
Malachi Palmer	G	24	2-7	2-6	0-0	4	0	0	2	6
Matt Hodge	F	23	1-1	1-1	1-2	2	1	0	1	4
Acaden Lewis	G	26	1-7	0-2	1-2	2	5	3	0	3
Zion Stanford	G	6	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	2
Braden Pierce	C	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

71.1Possessions71.1

121.0Offensive Efficiency111.1

111.1Defensive Efficiency121.0

9.8Net Efficiency-9.8

56.0%Effective FG%56.5%

59.1%True Shooting %60.4%

12.9%Turnover Rate19.3%

53.4%Free Throw Rate44.4%

25.9%3-Point Rate48.1%

1.44Assist / Turnover0.93

Game Summary

St. John's won by 7 points. The game played at approximately 71.1 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.