North Carolina

24-9

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

28.5%North Carolina

71.5%Virginia

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADVirginia -6.9

PROJECTED TOTAL152.4

MODEL MONEYLINEVirginia -251

Virginia

30-6

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNorth Carolina 73

Projected Total152.4

Projected ScoreVirginia 80

Team Comparison

North CarolinaMetricVirginia

65.2MMH Power Index68.9

115.5Offensive Efficiency119.0

103.8Defensive Efficiency101.8

11.7Net Efficiency17.2

7.6Strength of Schedule5.2

-1.8Last 10 Net Efficiency6.4

69.0Tempo67.6

54.6%Effective FG%55.0%

13.9%Turnover Rate16.0%

31.1%Offensive Rebound %37.4%

38.1%Free Throw Rate33.2%

8.1Average Margin11.6

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Virginia HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY71.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMVirginia holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (68.9–65.2), offensive efficiency (119.0–115.5), defensive efficiency (101.8–103.8), net efficiency (17.2–11.7).

North Carolina COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (7.6–5.2), ball security (13.9–16.0), free throw rate (38.1–33.2).

Final

North Carolina

85—80

Virginia

North Carolina by 5 • 68.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

North CarolinaTEAM STATVirginia

30-61FG29-64

49.0%FG%45.0%

10-223PT8-27

45.0%3PT%30.0%

15-22FT14-20

68.0%FT%70.0%

28Rebounds44

8Offensive Rebounds16

17Assists14

4Turnovers11

5Steals2

3Blocks2

14Fouls18

Player Box Score

North Carolina

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Caleb Wilson	F	34	8-12	0-0	4-6	4	2	2	2	20
Jarin Stevenson	F	16	6-9	2-4	3-3	1	0	0	0	17
Seth Trimble	G	34	5-6	2-2	4-6	5	2	2	0	16
Luka Bogavac	G	28	4-7	3-5	3-5	1	1	0	0	14
Derek Dixon	G	33	4-11	2-3	1-2	4	7	0	0	11
Henri Veesaar	C	29	3-8	1-3	0-0	1	2	0	1	7
Jonathan Powell	G	10	0-1	0-1	0-0	7	2	0	0	0
Jaydon Young	G	7	0-2	0-1	0-0	2	0	1	0	0
Kyan Evans	G	7	0-4	0-3	0-0	0	1	0	0	0
Zayden High	F	2	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Virginia

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Thijs De Ridder	F	31	7-11	1-1	5-8	8	2	1	0	20
Sam Lewis	G	28	4-7	1-2	2-2	6	0	0	0	11
Malik Thomas	G	28	3-12	3-8	2-4	5	2	0	0	11
Chance Mallory	G	24	3-7	1-4	4-4	3	3	1	0	11
Dallin Hall	G	30	4-8	0-2	0-0	7	4	0	0	8
Ugonna Onyenso	C	18	4-5	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	1	8
Johann Grunloh	C	22	2-7	1-4	1-2	4	1	0	1	6
Devin Tillis	F	9	1-3	1-2	0-0	3	1	0	0	3
Jacari White	G	10	1-4	0-3	0-0	1	1	0	0	2

Advanced Game Stats

68.0Possessions68.0

125.0Offensive Efficiency117.6

117.6Defensive Efficiency125.0

7.4Net Efficiency-7.4

57.4%Effective FG%51.6%

59.5%True Shooting %54.4%

5.9%Turnover Rate16.1%

36.1%Free Throw Rate31.3%

36.1%3-Point Rate42.2%

4.25Assist / Turnover1.27

Game Summary

North Carolina won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 68.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Turnover Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.