Duke

35-3

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

79.1%Duke

20.9%North Carolina

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADDuke -7.4

PROJECTED TOTAL149.8

MODEL MONEYLINEDuke -378

North Carolina

24-9

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreDuke 79

Projected Total149.8

Projected ScoreNorth Carolina 71

Team Comparison

DukeMetricNorth Carolina

81.7MMH Power Index65.2

122.2Offensive Efficiency115.5

95.2Defensive Efficiency103.8

27.0Net Efficiency11.7

7.8Strength of Schedule7.6

18.7Last 10 Net Efficiency-1.8

66.8Tempo69.0

56.9%Effective FG%54.6%

15.9%Turnover Rate13.9%

38.2%Offensive Rebound %31.1%

39.0%Free Throw Rate38.1%

18.0Average Margin8.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Duke HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY79.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

10–1

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMDuke holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (81.7–65.2), offensive efficiency (122.2–115.5), defensive efficiency (95.2–103.8), net efficiency (27.0–11.7).

North Carolina COUNTERS WITHball security (13.9–15.9).

Final

Duke

68—71

North Carolina

North Carolina by 3 • 63.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

DukeTEAM STATNorth Carolina

28-62FG26-55

45.0%FG%47.0%

7-193PT8-19

37.0%3PT%42.0%

5-6FT11-14

83.0%FT%79.0%

38Rebounds26

10Offensive Rebounds4

14Assists9

8Turnovers7

6Steals5

1Blocks3

15Fouls7

Player Box Score

Duke

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Cameron Boozer	F	38	10-21	2-4	2-2	11	3	0	0	24
Dame Sarr	G	33	5-6	2-3	1-2	6	2	1	0	13
Isaiah Evans	G	34	4-14	1-4	2-2	2	2	2	1	11
Caleb Foster	G	34	4-8	1-2	0-0	1	3	0	0	9
Cayden Boozer	G	16	2-4	1-2	0-0	2	2	0	0	5
Patrick Ngongba II	C	16	2-5	0-1	0-0	7	1	1	0	4
Maliq Brown	F	26	1-3	0-2	0-0	5	1	1	0	2
Nikolas Khamenia	G	3	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	1	0	0

North Carolina

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Caleb Wilson	F	40	8-12	1-2	6-6	4	2	2	1	23
Seth Trimble	G	32	5-7	1-1	5-8	2	0	3	1	16
Henri Veesaar	C	35	6-9	1-2	0-0	11	1	0	1	13
Derek Dixon	G	33	3-8	2-4	0-0	3	4	0	0	8
Jarin Stevenson	F	25	2-6	1-3	0-0	1	1	0	0	5
Jonathan Powell	G	15	1-3	1-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	3
Luka Bogavac	G	13	1-7	1-4	0-0	2	0	0	0	3
Kyan Evans	G	6	0-2	0-1	0-0	0	1	0	0	0
Jaydon Young	G	1	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

63.8Possessions63.8

106.6Offensive Efficiency111.3

111.3Defensive Efficiency106.6

-4.7Net Efficiency4.7

50.8%Effective FG%54.5%

52.4%True Shooting %57.6%

12.7%Turnover Rate10.8%

9.7%Free Throw Rate25.5%

30.6%3-Point Rate34.5%

1.75Assist / Turnover1.29

Game Summary

North Carolina won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 63.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.