Illinois

28-9

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

55.9%Illinois

44.1%Michigan State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIllinois -0.4

PROJECTED TOTAL151.3

MODEL MONEYLINEIllinois -127

Michigan State

27-8

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIllinois 76

Projected Total151.3

Projected ScoreMichigan State 75

Team Comparison

IllinoisMetricMichigan State

76.5MMH Power Index69.8

125.0Offensive Efficiency117.0

103.3Defensive Efficiency101.5

21.7Net Efficiency15.5

6.7Strength of Schedule7.2

12.7Last 10 Net Efficiency9.5

66.5Tempo67.3

54.8%Effective FG%54.1%

13.1%Turnover Rate17.2%

39.3%Offensive Rebound %37.7%

33.8%Free Throw Rate36.6%

14.5Average Margin10.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY55.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (76.5–69.8), offensive efficiency (125.0–117.0), net efficiency (21.7–15.5), recent form (12.7–9.5).

Michigan State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (101.5–103.3), strength of schedule (7.2–6.7), free throw rate (36.6–33.8).

Final

Illinois

82—85

Michigan State

Michigan State by 3 • 71.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

IllinoisTEAM STATMichigan State

26-71FG29-67

37.0%FG%43.0%

10-363PT7-24

28.0%3PT%29.0%

20-24FT20-23

83.0%FT%87.0%

38Rebounds48

15Offensive Rebounds15

13Assists18

4Turnovers8

5Steals3

5Blocks4

21Fouls19

Player Box Score

Illinois

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
David Mirkovic	F	36	5-13	1-5	7-8	6	6	1	1	18
Andrej Stojakovic	G	35	8-14	1-2	0-0	7	0	0	0	17
Keaton Wagler	G	41	2-16	2-8	10-12	6	3	1	0	16
Tomislav Ivisic	C	29	5-9	2-6	0-1	2	1	1	0	12
Ben Humrichous	F	29	3-6	2-4	0-0	4	2	0	1	8
Jake Davis	F	29	1-5	1-5	3-3	3	1	2	0	6
Zvonimir Ivisic	C	26	2-8	1-6	0-0	8	0	0	3	5

Michigan State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jeremy Fears Jr.	G	43	7-19	0-3	12-13	3	15	1	0	26
Jaxon Kohler	F	35	4-12	3-8	0-0	15	1	1	1	11
Jordan Scott	F	28	3-6	1-4	3-4	4	0	1	2	10
Kur Teng	G	16	4-10	2-6	0-0	1	0	0	0	10
Carson Cooper	C	37	3-4	0-0	3-4	9	1	0	1	9
Coen Carr	F	37	4-10	0-2	0-0	8	0	0	0	8
Cam Ward	F	18	3-4	0-0	2-2	7	0	0	0	8
Trey Fort	G	7	1-1	1-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	3
Jesse McCulloch	F	2	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Denham Wojcik	G	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

71.2Possessions71.2

115.2Offensive Efficiency119.4

119.4Defensive Efficiency115.2

-4.2Net Efficiency4.2

43.7%Effective FG%48.5%

49.8%True Shooting %54.5%

5.6%Turnover Rate11.3%

33.8%Free Throw Rate34.3%

50.7%3-Point Rate35.8%

3.25Assist / Turnover2.25

Game Summary

Michigan State won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 71.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Turnover Rate, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.