Valparaiso

18-15

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

26.9%Valparaiso

73.1%Illinois State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIllinois State -8.2

PROJECTED TOTAL143.6

MODEL MONEYLINEIllinois State -272

Illinois State

23-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreValparaiso 68

Projected Total143.6

Projected ScoreIllinois State 76

Team Comparison

ValparaisoMetricIllinois State

49.9MMH Power Index54.3

106.6Offensive Efficiency110.6

105.8Defensive Efficiency101.4

0.8Net Efficiency9.2

0.3Strength of Schedule1.0

-0.1Last 10 Net Efficiency-4.4

67.5Tempo67.5

48.7%Effective FG%54.3%

15.6%Turnover Rate16.8%

32.4%Offensive Rebound %28.3%

40.0%Free Throw Rate32.0%

0.5Average Margin6.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY73.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.3–49.9), offensive efficiency (110.6–106.6), defensive efficiency (101.4–105.8), net efficiency (9.2–0.8).

Valparaiso COUNTERS WITHrecent form (-0.1–-4.4), ball security (15.6–16.8), offensive rebounding (32.4–28.3).

Final

Valparaiso

64—86

Illinois State

Illinois State by 22 • 68.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

ValparaisoTEAM STATIllinois State

24-66FG30-58

36.0%FG%52.0%

6-163PT9-26

38.0%3PT%35.0%

10-14FT17-17

71.0%FT%100.0%

32Rebounds39

12Offensive Rebounds8

8Assists12

8Turnovers10

6Steals4

4Blocks2

17Fouls15

Player Box Score

Valparaiso

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
JT Pettigrew	F	31	5-17	1-3	6-8	13	0	0	2	17
Brody Whitaker	G	28	5-12	1-2	2-2	3	0	1	0	13
Rakim Chaney	G	30	4-13	2-7	0-0	3	1	2	1	10
Owen Dease	F	35	3-11	1-1	1-2	3	3	0	0	8
Shon Tupuola	C	19	3-4	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	6
Justus McNair	G	20	2-5	0-1	1-2	1	2	1	0	5
Sader Servilus	G	16	2-2	1-1	0-0	1	1	1	0	5
Carter Hopoi	F	15	0-2	0-1	0-0	2	1	1	1	0
Isaiah Barnes	G	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Kyonte Thomas	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Johnny Kinziger	G	26	7-15	3-8	4-4	0	1	0	0	21
Ty'Reek Coleman	G	28	6-10	1-2	1-1	5	3	0	0	14
Chase Walker	F	6	4-4	1-1	2-2	1	0	1	0	11
Landon Wolf	G	28	3-6	2-5	2-2	7	0	2	0	10
Ty Pence	G	28	3-6	0-2	2-2	8	4	1	1	8
Mason Klabo	G	18	2-6	0-3	4-4	4	1	0	0	8
Landon Moore	G	27	3-5	1-3	0-0	2	1	0	0	7
Boden Skunberg	G	21	2-4	1-2	2-2	5	1	0	0	7
Brandon Lieb	F	18	0-2	0-0	0-0	6	1	0	1	0

Advanced Game Stats

68.4Possessions68.4

93.6Offensive Efficiency125.7

125.7Defensive Efficiency93.6

-32.2Net Efficiency32.2

40.9%Effective FG%59.5%

44.0%True Shooting %65.1%

11.7%Turnover Rate14.7%

21.2%Free Throw Rate29.3%

24.2%3-Point Rate44.8%

1.00Assist / Turnover1.20

Game Summary

Illinois State won by 22 points. The game played at approximately 68.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.