Auburn

21-16

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

25.8%Auburn

74.2%Arkansas

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas -8.4

PROJECTED TOTAL172.6

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas -288

Arkansas

28-9

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreAuburn 82

Projected Total172.6

Projected ScoreArkansas 90

Team Comparison

AuburnMetricArkansas

64.4MMH Power Index69.3

118.8Offensive Efficiency122.2

113.0Defensive Efficiency109.8

5.8Net Efficiency12.4

7.5Strength of Schedule8.6

8.0Last 10 Net Efficiency3.4

69.8Tempo73.8

53.1%Effective FG%56.4%

14.5%Turnover Rate12.2%

36.5%Offensive Rebound %31.8%

43.8%Free Throw Rate36.5%

4.1Average Margin9.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY74.2%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (69.3–64.4), offensive efficiency (122.2–118.8), defensive efficiency (109.8–113.0), net efficiency (12.4–5.8).

Auburn COUNTERS WITHrecent form (8.0–3.4), offensive rebounding (36.5–31.8), free throw rate (43.8–36.5).

Final

Auburn

75—88

Arkansas

Arkansas by 13 • 66.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

AuburnTEAM STATArkansas

27-66FG35-61

41.0%FG%57.0%

6-193PT8-21

32.0%3PT%38.0%

15-20FT10-15

75.0%FT%67.0%

34Rebounds31

15Offensive Rebounds7

10Assists19

7Turnovers5

2Steals6

3Blocks10

15Fouls16

Player Box Score

Auburn

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tahaad Pettiford	G	38	11-18	4-7	3-3	3	7	0	0	29
KeShawn Murphy	F	34	9-16	0-2	4-6	12	1	1	2	22
Elyjah Freeman	G	36	3-10	2-4	1-2	9	0	1	1	9
Sebastian Williams-Adams	F	34	2-5	0-1	2-4	1	1	0	0	6
Kevin Overton	G	39	1-13	0-5	3-3	4	1	0	0	5
Filip Jovic	F	14	1-3	0-0	2-2	2	0	0	0	4
Blake Muschalek	G	3	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Simon Walker	G	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Arkansas

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Darius Acuff Jr.	G	38	10-15	7-10	4-5	2	7	0	0	31
Billy Richmond III	G	38	12-15	0-1	1-1	3	4	3	2	25
Trevon Brazile	F	36	5-12	1-5	0-0	7	1	1	4	11
Meleek Thomas	G	36	3-9	0-1	2-3	10	3	1	0	8
Malique Ewin	F	19	4-5	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	2	8
Nick Pringle	F	21	0-0	0-0	2-4	1	1	0	2	2
D.J. Wagner	G	6	1-3	0-2	0-0	1	1	1	0	2
Karter Knox	G	6	0-2	0-2	1-2	2	2	0	0	1

Advanced Game Stats

66.8Possessions66.8

112.3Offensive Efficiency131.7

131.7Defensive Efficiency112.3

-19.5Net Efficiency19.5

45.5%Effective FG%63.9%

49.7%True Shooting %64.6%

10.4%Turnover Rate7.6%

30.3%Free Throw Rate24.6%

28.8%3-Point Rate34.4%

1.43Assist / Turnover3.80

Game Summary

Arkansas won by 13 points. The game played at approximately 66.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.