Auburn

21-16

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

84.5%Auburn

15.5%Mississippi State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADAuburn -8.8

PROJECTED TOTAL165.4

MODEL MONEYLINEAuburn -545

Mississippi State

13-19

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreAuburn 87

Projected Total165.4

Projected ScoreMississippi State 78

Team Comparison

AuburnMetricMississippi State

64.4MMH Power Index44.6

118.8Offensive Efficiency107.4

113.0Defensive Efficiency113.2

5.8Net Efficiency-5.8

7.5Strength of Schedule5.0

8.0Last 10 Net Efficiency-17.5

69.8Tempo72.3

53.1%Effective FG%51.6%

14.5%Turnover Rate16.1%

36.5%Offensive Rebound %29.8%

43.8%Free Throw Rate30.9%

4.1Average Margin-4.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Auburn HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY84.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

11–0

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMAuburn holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (64.4–44.6), offensive efficiency (118.8–107.4), defensive efficiency (113.0–113.2), net efficiency (5.8–-5.8).

Final

Auburn

85—91

Mississippi State

Mississippi State by 6 • 67.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

AuburnTEAM STATMississippi State

24-62FG31-62

39.0%FG%50.0%

12-263PT16-30

46.0%3PT%53.0%

25-31FT13-17

81.0%FT%76.0%

41Rebounds34

17Offensive Rebounds9

12Assists17

8Turnovers6

6Steals6

3Blocks11

15Fouls23

Player Box Score

Auburn

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Keyshawn Hall	F	40	8-17	4-7	9-11	10	2	1	0	29
Tahaad Pettiford	G	36	7-17	3-9	4-4	4	4	1	0	21
Kevin Overton	G	28	4-12	4-7	3-4	3	0	1	0	15
KeShawn Murphy	F	32	1-7	0-2	5-6	11	2	1	2	7
Elyjah Freeman	G	19	2-5	1-1	2-2	3	1	1	0	7
Sebastian Williams-Adams	F	32	2-4	0-0	2-2	4	1	1	1	6
Filip Jovic	F	11	0-0	0-0	0-2	3	2	0	0	0
Blake Muschalek	G	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Mississippi State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Josh Hubbard	G	39	15-27	10-16	6-9	9	3	2	0	46
Jayden Epps	G	33	5-14	3-6	0-0	0	3	2	0	13
Shawn Jones Jr.	G	35	4-6	2-4	2-2	5	5	1	3	12
Ja'Borri McGhee	G	12	1-3	1-2	4-4	2	4	0	0	7
Quincy Ballard	C	24	3-5	0-0	0-0	6	1	0	2	6
Achor Achor	F	29	2-6	0-2	1-2	5	0	1	4	5
Jamarion Davis-Fleming	F	16	1-1	0-0	0-0	4	1	0	2	2
Sergej Macura	F	11	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
King Grace	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

67.4Possessions67.4

126.1Offensive Efficiency135.0

135.0Defensive Efficiency126.1

-8.9Net Efficiency8.9

48.4%Effective FG%62.9%

55.4%True Shooting %64.9%

11.8%Turnover Rate8.9%

50.0%Free Throw Rate27.4%

41.9%3-Point Rate48.4%

1.50Assist / Turnover2.83

Game Summary

Mississippi State won by 6 points. The game played at approximately 67.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.