Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

83.5%Arkansas State

16.5%Louisiana

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -9.3

PROJECTED TOTAL148.3

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -506

Louisiana

11-22

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 79

Projected Total148.3

Projected ScoreLouisiana 69

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricLouisiana

57.7MMH Power Index38.6

113.1Offensive Efficiency99.3

105.3Defensive Efficiency110.2

7.8Net Efficiency-10.9

-1.0Strength of Schedule1.5

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency-9.0

73.3Tempo64.1

52.7%Effective FG%47.1%

19.4%Turnover Rate16.8%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %28.2%

39.6%Free Throw Rate29.5%

5.8Average Margin-7.0

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY83.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–38.6), offensive efficiency (113.1–99.3), defensive efficiency (105.3–110.2), net efficiency (7.8–-10.9).

Louisiana COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (1.5–-1.0), ball security (16.8–19.4).

Final

Arkansas State

79—62

Louisiana

Arkansas State by 17 • 68.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATLouisiana

28-48FG24-74

58.0%FG%32.0%

3-143PT6-23

21.0%3PT%26.0%

20-28FT8-11

71.0%FT%73.0%

47Rebounds26

10Offensive Rebounds14

5Assists8

18Turnovers3

2Steals8

1Blocks3

14Fouls21

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Chandler Jackson	G	35	13-16	1-1	4-8	5	2	0	0	31
Jalen Hampton	G	28	5-8	0-0	2-2	12	1	0	0	12
Christian Harmon	G	30	4-8	1-4	0-0	2	0	0	0	9
Joey Chammaa	G	12	1-1	0-0	7-8	2	2	0	0	9
Jaxon Ellingsworth	F	20	3-7	1-4	1-2	6	0	0	0	8
TJ Caldwell	G	19	0-3	0-3	4-4	0	0	0	0	4
Aly Tounkara	F	30	1-1	0-0	1-2	8	0	1	1	3
Matt Hayman	G	20	1-3	0-2	1-2	3	0	0	0	3
Royal Blue Smith	G	6	0-1	0-0	0-0	3	0	1	0	0

Louisiana

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Dorian Finister	G	34	7-15	1-3	3-3	3	2	2	0	18
Jaxon Olvera	G	32	7-19	2-5	2-3	4	2	0	0	18
De'Vion Lavergne	G	34	6-15	0-2	1-2	3	3	0	0	13
Dariyus Woodson	F	18	1-6	1-4	2-2	2	0	1	1	5
Karris Bilal	G	34	1-6	1-3	0-0	6	0	2	0	3
Milan Mejia	G	16	1-3	1-3	0-0	0	0	2	0	3
Jeremiah Evans	F	7	1-3	0-0	0-0	2	0	1	2	2
Kyran Ratliff	F	14	0-5	0-3	0-0	1	1	0	0	0
Todd Jones Jr.	F	10	0-2	0-0	0-1	0	0	0	0	0
Mike Collins	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

68.8Possessions68.8

114.8Offensive Efficiency90.1

90.1Defensive Efficiency114.8

24.7Net Efficiency-24.7

61.5%Effective FG%36.5%

64.4%True Shooting %39.1%

26.0%Turnover Rate4.4%

58.3%Free Throw Rate14.9%

29.2%3-Point Rate31.1%

0.28Assist / Turnover2.67

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 17 points. The game played at approximately 68.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.