Cal State Northridge

20-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

34.0%Cal State Northridge

66.0%UC Santa Barbara

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADUC Santa Barbara -5.5

PROJECTED TOTAL159.3

MODEL MONEYLINEUC Santa Barbara -194

UC Santa Barbara

18-14

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreCal State Northridge 77

Projected Total159.3

Projected ScoreUC Santa Barbara 82

Team Comparison

Cal State NorthridgeMetricUC Santa Barbara

50MMH Power Index51.4

107.3Offensive Efficiency113.2

105.2Defensive Efficiency106.1

2.1Net Efficiency7.1

-0.6Strength of Schedule-2.0

1.8Last 10 Net Efficiency-1.7

75.9Tempo68.5

51.0%Effective FG%54.8%

17.3%Turnover Rate18.7%

32.9%Offensive Rebound %32.5%

34.7%Free Throw Rate37.9%

1.6Average Margin4.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

UC Santa Barbara HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY66.0%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

6–5

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMUC Santa Barbara holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (51.4–50.0), offensive efficiency (113.2–107.3), net efficiency (7.1–2.1), shooting efficiency (54.8–51.0).

Cal State Northridge COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (105.2–106.1), strength of schedule (-0.6–-2.0), recent form (1.8–-1.7).

Final

Cal State Northridge

85—83

UC Santa Barbara

Cal State Northridge by 2 • 83.3 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Cal State NorthridgeTEAM STATUC Santa Barbara

31-80FG22-65

39.0%FG%34.0%

3-173PT13-40

18.0%3PT%32.0%

20-30FT26-32

67.0%FT%81.0%

52Rebounds49

17Offensive Rebounds13

15Assists15

6Turnovers16

7Steals3

4Blocks5

25Fouls25

Player Box Score

Cal State Northridge

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Josiah Davis	G	43	10-24	0-0	11-15	14	7	1	1	31
Joshua O'Garro	G	42	8-15	2-4	2-5	8	2	2	1	20
Mahmoud Fofana	F	31	6-13	0-0	2-5	14	2	2	2	14
Larry Hughes II	G	38	3-11	1-7	5-5	3	1	0	0	12
James Evans Jr.	G	16	2-9	0-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	4
Grady Lewis	F	11	2-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	4
Jordan Brinson	G	24	0-1	0-1	0-0	6	2	2	0	0
Davius Loury	F	12	0-2	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	0
Jai Chisolm	G	6	0-3	0-3	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Aleks Szymczyk	C	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

UC Santa Barbara

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
CJ Shaw	G	42	5-13	3-7	9-10	4	5	1	0	22
Aidan Mahaney	G	38	5-16	5-11	4-4	3	1	1	0	19
Colin Smith	F	38	5-13	1-6	5-6	3	3	0	0	16
Marvin McGhee IV	G	29	4-9	3-7	2-2	7	3	0	0	13
Hosana Kitenge	F	34	1-1	0-0	5-7	11	3	0	3	7
Zion Sensley	G	27	2-11	1-9	1-2	11	0	1	0	6
Michael Simcoe	F	9	0-2	0-0	0-1	2	0	0	0	0
Koat Keat Tong	F	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	1	0
Evans Kipruto	C	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	1	0

Advanced Game Stats

83.3Possessions83.3

102.0Offensive Efficiency99.6

99.6Defensive Efficiency102.0

2.4Net Efficiency-2.4

40.6%Effective FG%43.8%

45.1%True Shooting %51.7%

7.2%Turnover Rate19.2%

37.5%Free Throw Rate49.2%

21.3%3-Point Rate61.5%

2.50Assist / Turnover0.94

Game Summary

Cal State Northridge won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 83.3 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Turnover Rate, Free Throw Rate, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.