Virginia

30-6

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

12.6%Virginia

87.4%Duke

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADDuke -12.7

PROJECTED TOTAL148.6

MODEL MONEYLINEDuke -694

Duke

35-3

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreVirginia 68

Projected Total148.6

Projected ScoreDuke 81

Team Comparison

VirginiaMetricDuke

68.9MMH Power Index81.7

119.0Offensive Efficiency122.2

101.8Defensive Efficiency95.2

17.2Net Efficiency27.0

5.2Strength of Schedule7.8

6.4Last 10 Net Efficiency18.7

67.6Tempo66.8

55.0%Effective FG%56.9%

16.0%Turnover Rate15.9%

37.4%Offensive Rebound %38.2%

33.2%Free Throw Rate39.0%

11.6Average Margin18.0

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Duke HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY87.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

11–0

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMDuke holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (81.7–68.9), offensive efficiency (122.2–119.0), defensive efficiency (95.2–101.8), net efficiency (27.0–17.2).

Final

Virginia

51—77

Duke

Duke by 26 • 61.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

VirginiaTEAM STATDuke

16-55FG26-53

29.0%FG%49.0%

7-353PT12-24

20.0%3PT%50.0%

12-13FT13-14

92.0%FT%93.0%

29Rebounds37

9Offensive Rebounds7

10Assists17

9Turnovers8

4Steals6

4Blocks1

15Fouls16

Player Box Score

Virginia

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Thijs De Ridder	F	20	5-11	2-4	4-4	3	0	0	1	16
Chance Mallory	G	22	3-7	1-4	2-2	0	1	1	0	9
Dallin Hall	G	29	2-4	2-4	0-0	1	4	0	0	6
Devin Tillis	F	18	1-3	1-2	2-2	2	2	0	0	5
Jacari White	G	17	1-7	1-6	2-3	1	0	0	0	5
Johann Grunloh	C	21	2-4	0-2	0-0	0	1	1	2	4
Malik Thomas	G	20	0-8	0-5	2-2	6	2	1	0	2
Ugonna Onyenso	C	17	1-2	0-1	0-0	5	0	0	1	2
Carter Lang	F	2	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Sam Lewis	G	26	0-6	0-5	0-0	4	0	0	0	0
Owen Odom	G	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	1	0	0
Martin Carrere	G	2	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Desmond Roberts	G	2	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Elijah Gertrude	G	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Duke

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Isaiah Evans	G	29	7-11	5-9	0-0	0	3	1	0	19
Cameron Boozer	F	33	3-9	1-4	11-12	9	4	1	1	18
Patrick Ngongba II	C	23	5-9	1-2	0-0	5	1	0	0	11
Maliq Brown	F	20	3-5	1-3	0-0	5	1	3	0	7
Cayden Boozer	G	22	2-3	0-0	2-2	0	1	1	0	6
Darren Harris	G	11	2-3	2-3	0-0	0	0	0	0	6
Caleb Foster	G	24	2-6	1-1	0-0	6	6	0	0	5
Dame Sarr	G	23	2-6	1-2	0-0	4	1	0	0	5
Nikolas Khamenia	G	11	0-0	0-0	0-0	4	0	0	0	0
Jack Scott	G	2	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Cameron Sheffield	G	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

61.0Possessions61.0

83.6Offensive Efficiency126.2

126.2Defensive Efficiency83.6

-42.6Net Efficiency42.6

35.5%Effective FG%60.4%

41.7%True Shooting %64.5%

14.7%Turnover Rate13.2%

23.6%Free Throw Rate26.4%

63.6%3-Point Rate45.3%

1.11Assist / Turnover2.13

Game Summary

Duke won by 26 points. The game played at approximately 61.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.