Michigan State

27-8

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

74.9%Michigan State

25.1%Northwestern

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADMichigan State -6.8

PROJECTED TOTAL147.2

MODEL MONEYLINEMichigan State -298

Northwestern

15-19

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMichigan State 77

Projected Total147.2

Projected ScoreNorthwestern 70

Team Comparison

Michigan StateMetricNorthwestern

69.8MMH Power Index55.4

117.0Offensive Efficiency111.6

101.5Defensive Efficiency109.8

15.5Net Efficiency1.8

7.2Strength of Schedule5.6

9.5Last 10 Net Efficiency-2.7

67.3Tempo65.6

54.1%Effective FG%51.9%

17.2%Turnover Rate13.0%

37.7%Offensive Rebound %28.2%

36.6%Free Throw Rate34.8%

10.5Average Margin1.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Michigan State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY74.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

10–1

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMMichigan State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (69.8–55.4), offensive efficiency (117.0–111.6), defensive efficiency (101.5–109.8), net efficiency (15.5–1.8).

Northwestern COUNTERS WITHball security (13.0–17.2).

Final

Michigan State

78—68

Northwestern

Michigan State by 10 • 68.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Michigan StateTEAM STATNorthwestern

27-54FG21-59

50.0%FG%36.0%

4-83PT5-25

50.0%3PT%20.0%

20-27FT21-27

74.0%FT%78.0%

37Rebounds30

10Offensive Rebounds14

18Assists10

11Turnovers12

8Steals6

5Blocks4

22Fouls22

Player Box Score

Michigan State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jaden Akins	Guard	26	3-11	2-3	6-6	1	1	5	0	14
Jase Richardson	Guard	24	4-8	1-2	4-5	2	1	0	0	13
Jeremy Fears Jr.	G	27	4-5	1-1	3-7	1	8	1	0	12
Jaxon Kohler	F	22	4-4	0-0	0-0	5	5	0	1	8
Tre Holloman	G	21	3-7	0-0	2-2	3	1	1	0	8
Frankie Fidler	Forward	16	3-6	0-1	2-2	5	0	1	1	8
Szymon Zapala	Center	19	3-5	0-0	1-3	5	0	0	2	7
Carson Cooper	C	14	1-4	0-0	2-2	5	2	0	0	4
Coen Carr	F	16	1-3	0-1	0-0	4	0	0	1	2
Xavier Booker	F	15	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	2

Northwestern

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Nick Martinelli	F	38	8-18	2-6	9-12	2	1	2	1	27
Jalen Leach	Not Available	35	4-10	1-4	8-9	5	4	0	0	17
Matthew Nicholson	Center	21	3-4	0-0	1-2	4	0	0	0	7
K.J. Windham	G	10	1-3	1-2	2-2	0	0	0	0	5
Angelo Ciaravino	G	8	2-6	1-3	0-0	3	0	0	0	5
Brooks Barnhizer	Guard	37	2-13	0-6	0-0	8	3	1	2	4
Ty Berry	Guard	16	1-4	0-3	0-0	0	0	2	0	2
Keenan Fitzmorris	Center	18	0-0	0-0	1-2	1	0	0	1	1
Justin Mullins	G	17	0-1	0-1	0-0	6	2	1	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

68.8Possessions68.8

113.4Offensive Efficiency98.8

98.8Defensive Efficiency113.4

14.5Net Efficiency-14.5

53.7%Effective FG%39.8%

58.4%True Shooting %47.3%

16.2%Turnover Rate17.2%

50.0%Free Throw Rate45.8%

14.8%3-Point Rate42.4%

1.64Assist / Turnover0.83

Game Summary

Michigan State won by 10 points. The game played at approximately 68.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.