Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

63.9%Arkansas State

36.1%Ohio

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -3.1

PROJECTED TOTAL162.3

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -177

Ohio

15-17

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 83

Projected Total162.3

Projected ScoreOhio 80

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricOhio

57.7MMH Power Index48

113.1Offensive Efficiency109.7

105.3Defensive Efficiency110.7

7.8Net Efficiency-1.0

-1.0Strength of Schedule-0.1

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency-1.0

73.3Tempo71.0

52.7%Effective FG%52.0%

19.4%Turnover Rate15.3%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %28.9%

39.6%Free Throw Rate37.8%

5.8Average Margin-0.7

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY63.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–48.0), offensive efficiency (113.1–109.7), defensive efficiency (105.3–110.7), net efficiency (7.8–-1.0).

Ohio COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (-0.1–-1.0), ball security (15.3–19.4).

Final

Arkansas State

89—85

Ohio

Arkansas State by 4 • 75.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATOhio

27-56FG31-63

48.0%FG%49.0%

10-273PT8-26

37.0%3PT%31.0%

25-28FT15-22

89.0%FT%68.0%

41Rebounds25

13Offensive Rebounds7

13Assists11

18Turnovers10

6Steals4

2Blocks1

27Fouls19

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Chandler Jackson	G	32	7-11	1-2	6-7	8	5	0	0	21
Joey Chammaa	G	26	5-11	4-7	7-8	4	1	2	0	21
Jaxon Ellingsworth	F	20	3-4	2-3	6-6	6	0	0	0	14
TJ Caldwell	G	11	3-5	2-4	2-2	2	0	0	0	10
Matt Hayman	G	20	2-4	0-2	3-3	0	4	1	0	7
Jalen Hampton	G	19	3-3	0-0	1-2	5	0	1	0	7
Royal Blue Smith	G	4	2-3	1-2	0-0	0	0	0	0	5
Chudi Dioramma	F	23	1-4	0-0	0-0	5	0	0	0	2
Aly Tounkara	F	16	1-1	0-0	0-0	5	0	1	1	2
Christian Harmon	G	29	0-10	0-7	0-0	4	3	1	1	0

Ohio

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Aidan Hadaway	F	35	12-16	3-6	1-2	6	3	0	0	28
Jackson Paveletzke	G	39	5-13	0-4	6-7	1	2	2	0	16
Javan Simmons	F	24	4-9	1-1	5-9	4	0	0	1	14
Dior Conners	G	17	2-6	2-6	2-2	1	1	0	0	8
Ajay Sheldon	G	36	2-8	2-7	1-2	4	2	1	0	7
Elijah Elliott	G	24	3-5	0-0	0-0	1	2	0	0	6
Jalen Breath	F	16	3-4	0-0	0-0	2	1	1	0	6
Kiir Kuany	F	5	0-2	0-2	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
JJ Kelly	G	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

75.4Possessions75.4

118.0Offensive Efficiency112.7

112.7Defensive Efficiency118.0

5.3Net Efficiency-5.3

57.1%Effective FG%55.6%

64.2%True Shooting %57.9%

24.2%Turnover Rate13.1%

50.0%Free Throw Rate34.9%

48.2%3-Point Rate41.3%

0.72Assist / Turnover1.10

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 75.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Turnover Rate, Net Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.