South Alabama

21-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

20.9%South Alabama

79.1%Toledo

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADToledo -8.6

PROJECTED TOTAL153.1

MODEL MONEYLINEToledo -378

Toledo

19-15

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreSouth Alabama 72

Projected Total153.1

Projected ScoreToledo 81

Team Comparison

South AlabamaMetricToledo

51.4MMH Power Index58.8

110.3Offensive Efficiency116.0

103.9Defensive Efficiency109.6

6.4Net Efficiency6.4

-3.7Strength of Schedule2.3

3.4Last 10 Net Efficiency10.2

67.4Tempo69.8

53.2%Effective FG%55.1%

12.8%Turnover Rate14.6%

24.9%Offensive Rebound %30.4%

39.8%Free Throw Rate30.3%

4.3Average Margin4.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Toledo HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY79.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMToledo holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (58.8–51.4), offensive efficiency (116.0–110.3), net efficiency (6.4–6.4), strength of schedule (2.3–-3.7).

South Alabama COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.9–109.6), ball security (12.8–14.6), free throw rate (39.8–30.3).

Final

South Alabama

76—74

Toledo

South Alabama by 2 • 63.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

South AlabamaTEAM STATToledo

32-58FG26-55

55.0%FG%47.0%

7-193PT15-33

37.0%3PT%45.0%

5-13FT7-9

38.0%FT%78.0%

36Rebounds26

11Offensive Rebounds6

16Assists21

10Turnovers11

7Steals5

1Blocks2

16Fouls12

Player Box Score

South Alabama

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Adam Olsen	F	38	8-18	5-11	2-3	1	2	0	0	23
Peyton Law	F	27	9-10	0-0	0-0	5	2	0	1	18
Chaze Harris	G	29	5-10	0-1	0-3	5	8	1	0	10
Jayden Cooper	G	28	4-8	2-4	0-0	3	0	1	0	10
Randy Brady	F	23	2-3	0-0	3-7	10	0	1	0	7
JJ Wheat	G	15	2-3	0-0	0-0	1	1	1	0	4
Hantz Louis-Jeune	G	8	1-3	0-2	0-0	2	0	1	0	2
Stephen Williams	F	5	1-1	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	2
John Broom	G	20	0-2	0-1	0-0	4	1	2	0	0
Brian Hawthorne	G	7	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	2	0	0	0

Toledo

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Kyler Vanderjagt	G	31	5-8	4-6	3-3	0	1	1	0	17
Leroy Blyden Jr.	G	30	6-12	5-10	0-0	1	9	1	2	17
Sonny Wilson	G	38	5-11	3-7	2-2	3	2	2	0	15
Sean Craig	F	29	2-7	1-2	1-3	9	4	0	0	6
Jaylan Ouwinga	F	25	3-4	0-1	0-0	4	2	0	0	6
Austin Parks	C	18	2-4	0-0	1-1	3	1	1	0	5
London Praytor	F	7	2-5	1-4	0-0	0	0	0	0	5
Mynor Strong	G	13	1-3	1-2	0-0	0	2	0	0	3
Tyler Ode	G	8	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Will James Jr.	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

63.8Possessions63.8

119.1Offensive Efficiency116.0

116.0Defensive Efficiency119.1

3.1Net Efficiency-3.1

61.2%Effective FG%60.9%

59.2%True Shooting %62.4%

15.8%Turnover Rate17.1%

22.4%Free Throw Rate16.4%

32.8%3-Point Rate60.0%

1.60Assist / Turnover1.91

Game Summary

South Alabama won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 63.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.