North Dakota State

27-8

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

66.2%North Dakota State

33.8%UC Davis

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADNorth Dakota State -3.5

PROJECTED TOTAL154.0

MODEL MONEYLINENorth Dakota State -196

UC Davis

19-14

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNorth Dakota State 79

Projected Total154.0

Projected ScoreUC Davis 75

Team Comparison

North Dakota StateMetricUC Davis

59MMH Power Index48.4

115.4Offensive Efficiency107.2

100.8Defensive Efficiency103.7

14.6Net Efficiency3.5

-4.6Strength of Schedule-1.9

14.3Last 10 Net Efficiency-0.1

69.6Tempo72.4

54.5%Effective FG%52.3%

15.5%Turnover Rate17.7%

32.0%Offensive Rebound %26.7%

31.3%Free Throw Rate41.5%

10.1Average Margin2.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

North Dakota State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY66.2%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMNorth Dakota State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (59.0–48.4), offensive efficiency (115.4–107.2), defensive efficiency (100.8–103.7), net efficiency (14.6–3.5).

UC Davis COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (-1.9–-4.6), free throw rate (41.5–31.3).

Final

North Dakota State

68—80

UC Davis

UC Davis by 12 • 68.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

North Dakota StateTEAM STATUC Davis

26-71FG30-53

37.0%FG%57.0%

3-273PT8-16

11.0%3PT%50.0%

13-14FT12-17

93.0%FT%71.0%

34Rebounds34

20Offensive Rebounds11

11Assists15

12Turnovers18

6Steals8

4Blocks6

20Fouls12

Player Box Score

North Dakota State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Markhi Strickland	G	29	7-13	0-0	3-4	6	1	0	1	17
Tay Smith	G	25	4-11	3-8	0-0	2	1	1	0	11
Trevian Carson	G	34	4-11	0-4	1-1	4	0	1	0	9
Damari Wheeler-Thomas	G	27	2-9	0-3	2-2	1	2	2	0	6
Carson Smith	G	13	0-3	0-2	6-6	4	1	0	0	6
Treyson Anderson	F	9	3-5	0-2	0-0	3	1	0	2	6
Andy Stefonowicz	G	28	2-7	0-3	1-1	1	5	2	0	5
Noah Feddersen	F	24	2-6	0-3	0-0	4	0	0	1	4
Emil Skytta	G	5	2-2	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	4
Max Majerle	G	5	0-4	0-2	0-0	4	0	0	0	0
Riley Massey	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

UC Davis

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Connor Sevilla	G	34	8-10	6-7	4-4	2	1	1	0	26
Nils Cooper	G	28	8-12	0-0	0-3	4	1	2	0	16
Isaiah Chappell	F	22	4-7	1-3	2-2	2	2	1	0	11
Niko Rocak	F	26	4-7	0-2	1-2	4	2	1	6	9
Marcus Wilson	G	31	3-6	0-2	2-2	2	6	0	0	8
Omer Suljanovic	F	29	2-6	1-1	3-4	5	1	2	0	8
Jalen Stokes	G	20	1-5	0-1	0-0	4	1	1	0	2
Chase Rawlins	G	10	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

68.9Possessions68.9

98.7Offensive Efficiency116.1

116.1Defensive Efficiency98.7

-17.4Net Efficiency17.4

38.7%Effective FG%64.2%

43.8%True Shooting %65.5%

17.2%Turnover Rate26.4%

19.7%Free Throw Rate32.1%

38.0%3-Point Rate30.2%

0.92Assist / Turnover0.83

Game Summary

UC Davis won by 12 points. The game played at approximately 68.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Effective FG%, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.