Illinois State

23-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

54.8%Illinois State

45.2%Ohio

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIllinois State -1.6

PROJECTED TOTAL151.7

MODEL MONEYLINEIllinois State -121

Ohio

15-17

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIllinois State 77

Projected Total151.7

Projected ScoreOhio 75

Team Comparison

Illinois StateMetricOhio

54.3MMH Power Index48

110.6Offensive Efficiency109.7

101.4Defensive Efficiency110.7

9.2Net Efficiency-1.0

1.0Strength of Schedule-0.1

-4.4Last 10 Net Efficiency-1.0

67.5Tempo71.0

54.3%Effective FG%52.0%

16.8%Turnover Rate15.3%

28.3%Offensive Rebound %28.9%

32.0%Free Throw Rate37.8%

6.2Average Margin-0.7

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY54.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.3–48.0), offensive efficiency (110.6–109.7), defensive efficiency (101.4–110.7), net efficiency (9.2–-1.0).

Ohio COUNTERS WITHrecent form (-1.0–-4.4), ball security (15.3–16.8), offensive rebounding (28.9–28.3).

Final

Illinois State

68—72

Ohio

Ohio by 4 • 70.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Illinois StateTEAM STATOhio

27-62FG28-55

44.0%FG%51.0%

8-263PT1-8

31.0%3PT%13.0%

6-11FT15-27

55.0%FT%56.0%

36Rebounds35

9Offensive Rebounds5

11Assists13

11Turnovers8

4Steals4

4Blocks3

20Fouls13

Player Box Score

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Johnny Kinziger	G	38	6-10	1-3	2-2	4	3	1	0	15
Boden Skunberg	G	32	6-13	3-6	0-2	7	1	1	0	15
Ty Pence	G	32	6-8	1-2	1-3	7	1	0	1	14
Chase Walker	F	19	2-7	1-3	2-2	4	3	1	1	7
Brandon Lieb	F	15	3-5	0-0	0-0	5	0	0	2	6
Mason Klabo	G	6	2-2	1-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	5
Ty'Reek Coleman	G	23	1-5	0-2	1-2	2	2	1	0	3
Landon Moore	G	10	1-4	1-3	0-0	0	1	0	0	3
Jack Daugherty	F	16	0-5	0-4	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Cameron Barnes	F	5	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Landon Wolf	G	4	0-2	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Ohio

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jackson Paveletzke	G	34	7-12	0-0	5-8	1	6	1	0	19
Javan Simmons	F	24	5-12	0-1	6-7	3	1	0	0	16
Jalen Breath	F	16	6-11	0-1	2-8	4	0	1	1	14
Aidan Hadaway	F	34	4-9	0-3	0-0	8	0	0	0	8
Dior Conners	G	26	2-3	1-2	0-0	3	3	0	0	5
Kiir Kuany	F	6	2-2	0-0	1-2	2	0	0	1	5
Ajay Sheldon	G	32	1-4	0-0	1-2	6	2	1	0	3
JJ Kelly	G	23	1-2	0-1	0-0	4	0	1	1	2
Jesse Burris	G	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

70.0Possessions70.0

97.1Offensive Efficiency102.9

102.9Defensive Efficiency97.1

-5.7Net Efficiency5.7

50.0%Effective FG%51.8%

50.6%True Shooting %53.1%

15.9%Turnover Rate11.3%

17.7%Free Throw Rate49.1%

41.9%3-Point Rate14.5%

1.00Assist / Turnover1.63

Game Summary

Ohio won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 70.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.