UMBC

24-8

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

87.3%UMBC

12.7%Morgan State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADUMBC -11.0

PROJECTED TOTAL147.2

MODEL MONEYLINEUMBC -687

Morgan State

14-16

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreUMBC 79

Projected Total147.2

Projected ScoreMorgan State 68

Team Comparison

UMBCMetricMorgan State

59.1MMH Power Index37.2

113.0Offensive Efficiency105.1

99.0Defensive Efficiency109.3

14.0Net Efficiency-4.2

-5.6Strength of Schedule-9.5

24.7Last 10 Net Efficiency2.1

65.5Tempo71.6

54.3%Effective FG%48.6%

14.3%Turnover Rate17.5%

25.2%Offensive Rebound %31.3%

34.1%Free Throw Rate42.9%

9.1Average Margin-3.0

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

UMBC HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY87.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMUMBC holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (59.1–37.2), offensive efficiency (113.0–105.1), defensive efficiency (99.0–109.3), net efficiency (14.0–-4.2).

Morgan State COUNTERS WITHoffensive rebounding (31.3–25.2), free throw rate (42.9–34.1).

Final

UMBC

81—79

Morgan State

UMBC by 2 • 71.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

UMBCTEAM STATMorgan State

28-49FG30-70

57.0%FG%43.0%

9-243PT9-19

38.0%3PT%47.0%

16-24FT10-13

67.0%FT%77.0%

33Rebounds33

6Offensive Rebounds14

15Assists14

18Turnovers9

4Steals5

4Blocks1

14Fouls16

Player Box Score

UMBC

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Daylon Dickerson	F	30	7-9	0-1	4-7	10	2	0	1	18
DJ Armstrong Jr.	G	34	4-6	4-6	5-5	1	2	0	1	17
Ace Valentine	G	35	3-9	2-6	4-4	5	7	0	0	12
Riley Jacobs	F	23	4-6	0-1	1-2	2	1	1	0	9
Devin Ceaser	G	12	3-6	3-6	0-0	3	1	0	0	9
Paul Greene	F	13	3-4	0-0	1-4	5	0	1	0	7
Jah'Likai King	G	33	2-5	0-2	0-0	4	1	2	1	4
Caden Diggs	F	10	2-2	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	4
Jose Roberto Tanchyn	F	10	0-2	0-2	1-2	2	0	0	1	1

Morgan State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Elijah Davis	G	38	7-17	0-1	3-4	1	8	0	0	17
Alfred Worrell Jr.	G	27	5-14	5-9	1-1	3	0	1	0	16
Walter Peggs Jr.	G	23	5-10	2-4	2-2	2	1	1	0	14
Christian Oliver	C	20	4-7	0-1	2-2	5	1	0	0	10
Christian Meeks	G	30	4-5	0-0	0-0	8	1	0	0	8
Rob Lawson	G	32	2-9	1-2	0-0	6	3	1	0	5
Eugene Alvin	F	13	2-4	1-2	0-2	2	0	2	0	5
Dallas James	C	7	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	1	2
Manok Lual	F	6	0-2	0-0	2-2	1	0	0	0	2
Marland Harris	F	4	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

71.8Possessions71.8

112.8Offensive Efficiency110.0

110.0Defensive Efficiency112.8

2.8Net Efficiency-2.8

66.3%Effective FG%49.3%

67.1%True Shooting %51.9%

24.9%Turnover Rate12.6%

49.0%Free Throw Rate18.6%

49.0%3-Point Rate27.1%

0.83Assist / Turnover1.56

Game Summary

UMBC won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 71.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Effective FG%, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.