Merrimack

23-11

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

62.4%Merrimack

37.6%Tarleton State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADMerrimack -0.9

PROJECTED TOTAL141.4

MODEL MONEYLINEMerrimack -166

Tarleton State

14-18

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMerrimack 71

Projected Total141.4

Projected ScoreTarleton State 70

Team Comparison

MerrimackMetricTarleton State

53.7MMH Power Index44.6

106.4Offensive Efficiency103.2

103.2Defensive Efficiency101.6

3.2Net Efficiency1.6

0.7Strength of Schedule-2.3

12.9Last 10 Net Efficiency-6.7

64.4Tempo72.2

49.3%Effective FG%49.0%

14.8%Turnover Rate19.9%

24.7%Offensive Rebound %31.8%

39.5%Free Throw Rate42.8%

2.1Average Margin1.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Merrimack HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY62.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMMerrimack holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (53.7–44.6), offensive efficiency (106.4–103.2), net efficiency (3.2–1.6), strength of schedule (0.7–-2.3).

Tarleton State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (101.6–103.2), offensive rebounding (31.8–24.7), free throw rate (42.8–39.5).

Final

Merrimack

62—76

Tarleton State

Tarleton State by 14 • 73.7 estimated possessions

Team Stats

MerrimackTEAM STATTarleton State

19-58FG28-57

33.0%FG%49.0%

5-283PT2-11

18.0%3PT%18.0%

19-24FT18-25

79.0%FT%72.0%

34Rebounds39

16Offensive Rebounds13

7Assists12

21Turnovers17

5Steals10

2Blocks8

21Fouls19

Player Box Score

Merrimack

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Ernest Shelton	G	36	6-14	3-9	5-6	3	0	0	1	20
Kevair Kennedy	G	28	2-9	0-1	8-10	7	2	2	0	12
Aliou Cisse	F	17	3-7	1-2	0-0	5	0	0	1	7
Malik Edmead	G	11	3-5	0-0	1-1	1	0	0	0	7
Todd Brogna	F	21	1-2	1-2	2-2	4	1	0	0	5
Andrés Marrero	G	18	1-6	0-5	3-3	1	0	0	0	5
Tye Dorset	G	36	1-10	0-8	0-0	3	3	3	0	2
Dylan Veillette	F	15	1-4	0-1	0-0	2	1	0	0	2
KC Ugwuakazi	F	9	1-1	0-0	0-2	0	0	0	0	2
Jaylen Stinson	G	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Brendan Johnson	G	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Tarleton State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Chris Mpaka	F	30	10-12	0-0	4-4	9	0	0	4	24
Freddy Hicks	G	34	5-11	0-0	8-12	3	5	0	4	18
Kade Douglas	G	14	3-9	1-5	1-2	1	0	0	0	8
Jordan Mizell	G	35	3-5	0-0	0-0	2	2	2	0	6
Dior Johnson	G	21	2-5	1-3	1-3	1	2	1	0	6
Andy Sigiscar	F	13	1-1	0-0	4-4	4	1	0	0	6
Kaia Isaac	G	18	2-4	0-1	0-0	1	2	3	0	4
Cam McDowell	G	28	1-6	0-2	0-0	8	0	4	0	2
Ocypher Owens	F	2	1-3	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	2
Leroy Kelly IV	G	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	0
Cameron Thomas	G	1	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

73.7Possessions73.7

84.1Offensive Efficiency103.1

103.1Defensive Efficiency84.1

-19.0Net Efficiency19.0

37.1%Effective FG%50.9%

44.7%True Shooting %55.2%

28.2%Turnover Rate23.3%

41.4%Free Throw Rate43.9%

48.3%3-Point Rate19.3%

0.33Assist / Turnover0.71

Game Summary

Tarleton State won by 14 points. The game played at approximately 73.7 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.