Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

55.6%Arkansas State

44.4%Missouri State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -0.8

PROJECTED TOTAL157.4

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -125

Missouri State

16-18

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 79

Projected Total157.4

Projected ScoreMissouri State 78

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricMissouri State

57.7MMH Power Index51.1

113.1Offensive Efficiency110.5

105.3Defensive Efficiency108.4

7.8Net Efficiency2.1

-1.0Strength of Schedule0.5

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency-2.1

73.3Tempo67.9

52.7%Effective FG%51.8%

19.4%Turnover Rate16.4%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %33.0%

39.6%Free Throw Rate42.9%

5.8Average Margin1.4

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY55.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–51.1), offensive efficiency (113.1–110.5), defensive efficiency (105.3–108.4), net efficiency (7.8–2.1).

Missouri State COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (0.5–-1.0), ball security (16.4–19.4), free throw rate (42.9–39.6).

Final

Arkansas State

86—85

Missouri State

Arkansas State by 1 • 79.7 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATMissouri State

29-65FG26-56

45.0%FG%46.0%

5-223PT6-21

23.0%3PT%29.0%

23-29FT27-37

79.0%FT%73.0%

40Rebounds32

14Offensive Rebounds7

11Assists14

16Turnovers12

6Steals7

2Blocks3

27Fouls23

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Chandler Jackson	G	27	10-11	3-3	10-12	4	1	0	0	33
TJ Caldwell	G	27	6-15	0-3	4-4	7	1	1	0	16
Jaxon Ellingsworth	F	34	4-9	1-3	0-1	4	1	2	0	9
Aly Tounkara	F	16	3-4	0-0	2-2	3	1	0	2	8
Royal Blue Smith	G	20	1-3	0-1	5-7	1	2	1	0	7
Matt Hayman	G	27	2-13	0-5	2-2	7	1	1	0	6
Christian Harmon	G	35	2-7	1-6	0-1	11	4	1	0	5
Chudi Dioramma	F	10	1-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Fredy-Salam Sylla	G	4	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Missouri State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Michael Osei-Bonsu	F	24	5-7	0-0	11-19	10	4	1	0	21
Zaxton King	G	37	7-9	2-3	2-2	5	0	1	1	18
Trey Williams Jr.	G	37	4-14	2-5	4-4	1	2	0	1	14
Keith Palek III	F	22	5-11	1-5	2-2	2	0	2	0	13
Kobi Williams	G	26	1-6	0-5	5-6	2	1	0	0	7
Darrion Sutton	F	25	3-7	1-2	0-0	10	4	3	1	7
Tyrique Brooks	G	7	1-1	0-0	1-2	0	1	0	0	3
Logan Epes	G	22	0-1	0-1	2-2	1	2	0	0	2

Advanced Game Stats

79.7Possessions79.7

107.9Offensive Efficiency106.6

106.6Defensive Efficiency107.9

1.3Net Efficiency-1.3

48.5%Effective FG%51.8%

54.6%True Shooting %57.8%

19.8%Turnover Rate15.3%

44.6%Free Throw Rate66.1%

33.8%3-Point Rate37.5%

0.69Assist / Turnover1.17

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 1 points. The game played at approximately 79.7 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Turnover Rate, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.