Cal Poly

14-19

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

18.2%Cal Poly

81.8%Colorado State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADColorado State -10.6

PROJECTED TOTAL161.1

MODEL MONEYLINEColorado State -449

Colorado State

21-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreCal Poly 75

Projected Total161.1

Projected ScoreColorado State 86

Team Comparison

Cal PolyMetricColorado State

46.5MMH Power Index55.4

107.2Offensive Efficiency117.1

111.0Defensive Efficiency109.9

-3.8Net Efficiency7.2

1.7Strength of Schedule0.4

2.4Last 10 Net Efficiency4.3

76.6Tempo64.7

52.2%Effective FG%58.6%

19.8%Turnover Rate18.3%

29.9%Offensive Rebound %29.2%

35.8%Free Throw Rate41.2%

-2.9Average Margin4.6

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Colorado State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY81.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMColorado State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (55.4–46.5), offensive efficiency (117.1–107.2), defensive efficiency (109.9–111.0), net efficiency (7.2–-3.8).

Cal Poly COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (1.7–0.4), offensive rebounding (29.9–29.2).

Final

Cal Poly

79—93

Colorado State

Colorado State by 14 • 75.1 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Cal PolyTEAM STATColorado State

27-63FG29-60

43.0%FG%48.0%

14-363PT16-36

39.0%3PT%44.0%

11-18FT19-20

61.0%FT%95.0%

35Rebounds38

9Offensive Rebounds6

13Assists25

13Turnovers11

5Steals7

2Blocks1

22Fouls18

Player Box Score

Cal Poly

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Hamad Mousa	G	28	5-13	4-7	4-6	2	3	0	0	18
Peter Bandelj	G	29	5-10	2-6	2-2	7	2	2	0	14
Cayden Ward	G	28	4-10	2-6	2-3	4	1	1	1	12
Jake Davis	G	27	2-7	2-7	2-2	4	1	0	0	8
Guzman Vasilic	G	17	3-5	2-4	0-0	4	1	1	1	8
Troy Plumtree	F	9	3-5	0-1	0-1	0	0	0	0	6
Jason Scott	G	5	2-3	2-2	0-0	0	1	0	0	6
Kieran Elliott	G	20	2-4	0-1	0-0	4	2	1	0	4
Austin Goode	F	11	1-2	0-1	0-0	3	0	0	0	2
Ali Assran	F	17	0-2	0-1	1-4	2	0	0	0	1
Aaron Price Jr.	PF	9	0-2	0-0	0-0	2	2	0	0	0

Colorado State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Josh Pascarelli	G	34	8-17	6-13	0-0	1	1	1	0	22
Carey Booth	F	25	4-6	1-1	6-7	10	0	0	0	15
Brandon Rechsteiner	G	26	5-11	3-9	0-0	2	3	1	0	13
Jase Butler	G	20	4-7	2-4	3-3	5	3	2	0	13
Augustinas Kiudulas	F	18	2-4	1-1	6-6	6	3	1	0	11
Jevin Muniz	G	28	1-6	1-3	2-2	7	7	1	0	5
Jojo McIver	G	18	1-4	1-3	2-2	2	6	0	0	5
Kyle Jorgensen	F	11	2-2	1-1	0-0	3	1	0	0	5
Nikola Djapa	C	17	2-2	0-0	0-0	2	1	1	1	4
Darnez Slater	G	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Jon Mekonnen	F	1	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

75.1Possessions75.1

105.2Offensive Efficiency123.8

123.8Defensive Efficiency105.2

-18.6Net Efficiency18.6

54.0%Effective FG%61.7%

55.2%True Shooting %66.9%

17.2%Turnover Rate14.8%

28.6%Free Throw Rate33.3%

57.1%3-Point Rate60.0%

1.00Assist / Turnover2.27

Game Summary

Colorado State won by 14 points. The game played at approximately 75.1 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.