Illinois State

23-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

54.0%Illinois State

46.0%USC

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIllinois State -0.5

PROJECTED TOTAL151.7

MODEL MONEYLINEIllinois State -117

USC

18-14

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIllinois State 76

Projected Total151.7

Projected ScoreUSC 76

Team Comparison

Illinois StateMetricUSC

54.3MMH Power Index48.3

110.6Offensive Efficiency108.5

101.4Defensive Efficiency107.6

9.2Net Efficiency0.9

1.0Strength of Schedule2.5

-4.4Last 10 Net Efficiency-16.0

67.5Tempo72.4

54.3%Effective FG%50.7%

16.8%Turnover Rate17.2%

28.3%Offensive Rebound %33.2%

32.0%Free Throw Rate45.3%

6.2Average Margin0.7

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY54.0%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.3–48.3), offensive efficiency (110.6–108.5), defensive efficiency (101.4–107.6), net efficiency (9.2–0.9).

USC COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (2.5–1.0), offensive rebounding (33.2–28.3), free throw rate (45.3–32.0).

Final

Illinois State

67—87

USC

USC by 20 • 68.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Illinois StateTEAM STATUSC

24-70FG29-57

34.0%FG%51.0%

7-323PT6-18

22.0%3PT%33.0%

12-13FT23-35

92.0%FT%66.0%

39Rebounds36

17Offensive Rebounds10

11Assists20

11Turnovers4

2Steals6

2Blocks7

24Fouls17

Player Box Score

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Ty'Reek Coleman	G	31	6-13	1-4	3-3	3	2	0	0	16
Johnny Kinziger	G	31	6-14	2-9	1-2	0	2	1	0	15
Ty Pence	G	29	4-9	1-3	0-0	7	2	0	0	9
Landon Wolf	G	25	2-4	0-2	4-4	7	2	0	0	8
Chase Walker	F	20	2-10	0-1	2-2	9	1	0	0	6
Jack Daugherty	F	8	2-6	2-5	0-0	1	0	0	0	6
Mason Klabo	G	12	1-5	1-4	0-0	1	2	0	1	3
Brandon Lieb	F	17	0-3	0-0	2-2	3	0	0	1	2
Landon Moore	G	9	1-3	0-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Boden Skunberg	G	14	0-3	0-2	0-0	1	0	1	0	0
Cameron Barnes	F	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

USC

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Rodney Rice	G	36	6-16	2-5	7-8	10	10	1	0	21
Chad Baker-Mazara	G	33	7-13	2-4	2-4	4	2	0	0	18
Gabe Dynes	C	32	6-7	0-0	2-4	5	3	1	3	14
Ezra Ausar	F	15	4-4	0-0	5-11	2	3	0	0	13
Amarion Dickerson	G	28	2-6	1-3	4-4	6	0	0	0	9
Jacob Cofie	F	32	3-8	1-4	1-2	6	2	3	3	8
Terrance Williams II	F	12	1-2	0-1	2-2	1	0	1	0	4
Jerry Easter II	G	6	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Jaden Brownell	F	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	1	0
Jordan Marsh	G	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

68.9Possessions68.9

97.2Offensive Efficiency126.3

126.3Defensive Efficiency97.2

-29.0Net Efficiency29.0

39.3%Effective FG%56.1%

44.0%True Shooting %59.1%

15.7%Turnover Rate5.9%

18.6%Free Throw Rate61.4%

45.7%3-Point Rate31.6%

1.00Assist / Turnover5.00

Game Summary

USC won by 20 points. The game played at approximately 68.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.