Sacramento State

10-21

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

24.8%Sacramento State

75.2%UC Davis

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADUC Davis -8.9

PROJECTED TOTAL159.7

MODEL MONEYLINEUC Davis -303

UC Davis

19-14

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreSacramento State 75

Projected Total159.7

Projected ScoreUC Davis 84

Team Comparison

Sacramento StateMetricUC Davis

43MMH Power Index48.4

106.1Offensive Efficiency107.2

112.0Defensive Efficiency103.7

-5.9Net Efficiency3.5

0.9Strength of Schedule-1.9

-7.8Last 10 Net Efficiency-0.1

73.2Tempo72.4

48.5%Effective FG%52.3%

14.2%Turnover Rate17.7%

25.1%Offensive Rebound %26.7%

41.8%Free Throw Rate41.5%

-4.3Average Margin2.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

UC Davis HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY75.2%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMUC Davis holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (48.4–43.0), offensive efficiency (107.2–106.1), defensive efficiency (103.7–112.0), net efficiency (3.5–-5.9).

Sacramento State COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (0.9–-1.9), ball security (14.2–17.7), free throw rate (41.8–41.5).

Final

Sacramento State

73—77

UC Davis

UC Davis by 4 • 72.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Sacramento StateTEAM STATUC Davis

26-59FG25-56

44.0%FG%45.0%

4-133PT6-27

31.0%3PT%22.0%

17-21FT21-27

81.0%FT%78.0%

37Rebounds33

11Offensive Rebounds9

11Assists16

14Turnovers13

8Steals10

1Blocks5

20Fouls16

Player Box Score

Sacramento State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jeremiah Cherry	F	30	9-20	0-2	4-4	9	0	2	0	22
Prophet Johnson	G	37	8-13	1-2	3-5	12	3	3	0	20
Mikey Williams	G	38	3-7	0-1	6-6	0	4	0	0	12
Jahni Summers	G	24	3-5	2-4	0-0	3	1	1	1	8
Mark Lavrenov	F	16	2-5	1-1	0-0	6	0	1	0	5
Jayden Teat	G	18	1-7	0-2	2-4	0	2	1	0	4
Shaqir O'Neal	F	19	0-0	0-0	2-2	1	0	0	0	2
Brandon Gardner	F	11	0-2	0-1	0-0	3	1	0	0	0
Arman Madi	G	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Romari Robinson	G	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

UC Davis

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Connor Sevilla	G	28	7-11	4-8	2-3	1	0	1	0	20
Nils Cooper	G	34	4-8	1-3	5-6	3	1	3	0	14
Omer Suljanovic	F	21	5-7	0-2	3-5	1	0	1	0	13
Marcus Wilson	G	31	3-9	0-3	6-6	6	3	0	0	12
Niko Rocak	F	29	2-4	0-1	3-5	8	5	2	4	7
Isaiah Chappell	F	26	3-10	1-5	0-0	6	1	0	1	7
Brayden Fagbemi	G	22	1-5	0-4	2-2	2	5	3	0	4
Chase Rawlins	G	7	0-2	0-1	0-0	1	1	0	0	0
Abdullah Amzil	F	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Jalen Stokes	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

72.4Possessions72.4

100.8Offensive Efficiency106.4

106.4Defensive Efficiency100.8

-5.5Net Efficiency5.5

47.5%Effective FG%50.0%

52.9%True Shooting %55.9%

19.5%Turnover Rate17.9%

35.6%Free Throw Rate48.2%

22.0%3-Point Rate48.2%

0.79Assist / Turnover1.23

Game Summary

UC Davis won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 72.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.