Little Rock

12-20

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

44.8%Little Rock

55.2%Ball State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADBall State -2.9

PROJECTED TOTAL140.6

MODEL MONEYLINEBall State -123

Ball State

12-19

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreLittle Rock 69

Projected Total140.6

Projected ScoreBall State 72

Team Comparison

Little RockMetricBall State

44MMH Power Index41.3

103.0Offensive Efficiency101.7

108.2Defensive Efficiency104.7

-5.2Net Efficiency-3.0

0.5Strength of Schedule-3.9

-0.7Last 10 Net Efficiency-0.9

68.5Tempo66.4

50.3%Effective FG%48.3%

18.7%Turnover Rate16.0%

32.1%Offensive Rebound %26.5%

28.6%Free Throw Rate33.0%

-3.6Average Margin-2.0

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Little Rock HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY55.2%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

6–5

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMLittle Rock holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (44.0–41.3), offensive efficiency (103.0–101.7), strength of schedule (0.5–-3.9), recent form (-0.7–-0.9).

Ball State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (104.7–108.2), net efficiency (-3.0–-5.2), ball security (16.0–18.7).

Final

Little Rock

68—62

Ball State

Little Rock by 6 • 67.1 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Little RockTEAM STATBall State

28-51FG21-47

55.0%FG%45.0%

7-123PT7-21

58.0%3PT%33.0%

5-11FT13-19

45.0%FT%68.0%

36Rebounds18

12Offensive Rebounds4

14Assists14

23Turnovers15

8Steals10

4Blocks2

17Fouls14

Player Box Score

Little Rock

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Cameron Wallace	F	28	10-14	0-0	0-0	4	0	1	0	20
Braxton Bayless	G	38	7-10	3-3	0-3	5	1	0	0	17
Johnathan Lawson	G	37	5-13	2-5	2-4	6	6	2	0	14
Tuongthach Gatkek	F	35	2-4	0-0	3-4	6	4	2	3	7
Terrion Burgess	F	27	2-2	1-1	0-0	3	1	1	0	5
Truman Claytor IV	F	17	1-3	1-1	0-0	2	0	1	0	3
Kachi Nzeh	F	13	1-4	0-2	0-0	6	1	0	1	2
Christian Hughes	G	4	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	1	1	0	0
Caleb Pennyfeather	F	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Ball State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Armoni Zeigler	G	38	6-10	2-5	1-1	5	3	3	1	15
Davion Hill	G	26	3-9	2-6	3-4	3	3	0	0	11
Cam Denson	F	30	4-6	0-0	2-3	2	1	2	0	10
Juwan Maxey	G	16	2-5	1-4	3-3	1	1	0	0	8
Elmore James IV	G	25	2-5	1-2	2-4	1	1	1	0	7
Devon Barnes	G	18	2-7	1-3	2-2	0	1	1	0	7
Mason Jones	F	34	1-3	0-1	0-2	4	4	2	1	2
Kayden Fish	F	11	1-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Preston Copeland	F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

67.1Possessions67.1

101.3Offensive Efficiency92.4

92.4Defensive Efficiency101.3

8.9Net Efficiency-8.9

61.8%Effective FG%52.1%

60.5%True Shooting %55.3%

34.2%Turnover Rate22.4%

21.6%Free Throw Rate40.4%

23.5%3-Point Rate44.7%

0.61Assist / Turnover0.93

Game Summary

Little Rock won by 6 points. The game played at approximately 67.1 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Turnover Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.